Study game away from table

I recently played a hand in a $1,000-buy-in event that I think is incredibly educational.

With blinds at 400-800 plus a 100 ante, a loose, aggressive player raised to 1,800 from middle position. I picked up pocket jacks on the button and reraised to 4,400 out of my 24,900 stack.

The purpose of my somewhat small reraise was to allow my opponent to call and see a flop with a hand that I likely dominated while also giving him plenty of room to get out of line and put in an additional reraise.

To my surprise, another loose, aggressive player reraised all-in for 25,000 from the small blind. The action folded around to the initial raiser, who thought for about 15 seconds before going all in. That turn of events certainly wasn’t what I’d expected.

At that point, I had to figure out both players’ ranges and determine how my pocket jacks might fare. I imagined the small blind had a somewhat snug range, such as A-A through 9-9, A-K and maybe A-Q.

Against that range, my J-J would be in decent shape, winning 50% of the time. I think the initial raiser, who pushed all in on top of the small blind’s all-in bet, had an incredibly strong range, perhaps A-A through J-J plus A-K.

Against that snug range, my pocket jacks would win only 36% of the time. Against both players combined, pocket jacks would win 28% of the time.

While I was getting decent pot odds, I was getting roughly a break-even price. To calculate my pot odds, you take the amount I’d have to call (20,500) and divide it by the amount I’d have to call plus the current pot (which would amount to 76,600). This means I need to win 26.8% of the time to justify making the call.

Since I will win 28% of the time and need to win 26.8% based on the pot odds, calling will return a tiny profit. However, in a tournament, you should strive not go broke. Calling in this situation will result in me going broke 72% of the time.

Also, I may have made a mistake in estimating my opponents’ ranges. They may be a bit tighter than I estimated. If they are tighter than expected, my call would become unprofitable.

Of course, those ranges could also be much looser, but you will find that few people are trying to get their money in poorly.

All of these factors, along with my belief that I’m better than most of my opponents in a $1,000-buy-in event, suggested that I should fold, which is exactly what I did.

It turned out that the small blind had A-K and the initial raiser had K-K. By understanding the math behind this situation, I sidestepped going broke, allowing me to continue in the tournament.

Don’t fool yourself into thinking that you’ll be able to figure out the optimal play the first time you encounter it at the poker table.

By studying the game away from the table, you’ll learn how to profitably navigate many common situations, such as this one. Little is a professional poker player and coach.