Mosul fight expected to be most complex yet for Iraq The varied fighting forces and number of civilians add to challenges
Iraqi forces have launched their most complex operation against Islamic State to date: retaking Mosul, one of the country’s major cities.
While the country’s military has won a string of territorial victories that have pushed Islamic State out of a large portion of the territory the militant group once held, some Iraqi officials worry that the Mosul fight has been rushed and that if the city is retaken without a plan to broker a peace, it could lead to more violence.
How we got here
Mosul fell to Islamic State in June 2014, when the extremist group blitzed across northern and western Iraq, overrunning nearly a third of the country and plunging Iraq into its most critical political and security crisis since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003.
The most recent string of territorial victories for Iraqi ground forces has been in the country’s west. Iraqi forces retook the city of Ramadi in late 2015, followed by a number of towns and villages along the Euphrates River valley and then Fallujah in June.
This allowed Iraqi forces to weaken the group by cutting supply lines used to ferry fighters and supplies between territory held in Syria and Iraq. Troop buildup
Iraqi forces began moving into Nineveh province to surround Mosul in July, when ground troops led by the country’s elite special forces retook Qayyarah air base south of the city. Thousands of Iraqi troops massed there ahead of the planned operation. Iraqi troops were also deployed east of Mosul in the Khazer area, along with Kurdish peshmerga forces, and to the north of the city near the Mosul dam and Bashiqa areas.
The players
In addition to the Iraqi army, Kurdish peshmerga forces, Iraqi special forces and Sunni Muslim tribal fighters, Shiite militia forces are also expected to play a role in the Mosul operation. The role of the Shiite militias has been particularly sensitive, as Nineveh is a majority Sunni province and Shiite militia forces have been accused of carrying out abuses against civilians in other operations in majority Sunni parts of Iraq.
A very small number of Turkish troops deployed for more than a year at a base north of Mosul have caused a recent increase in tensions between Iraq and Turkey. Iraq has repeatedly called for the Turkish forces to withdraw, claiming they entered the country without the permission of the central government. It’s unclear whether they intend to play a role in the operation to retake Mosul; Turkey’s president has said they cannot be excluded. Shiite militia fighters have said they are violating Iraqi sovereignty and have vowed to expel them.
The operation
Iraq’s special forces say the fight to retake Mosul will largely be launched from the north and east. The Kurdish peshmerga forces say they will push Islamic State out of a cluster of mostly Christian and Yazidi villages northeast of Mosul along the Nineveh plain, while Iraqi military troops try to cut the main supply line northwest of Mosul that links Islamic State territory in Iraq to its strongholds in Syria. A large number of Iraqi military forces are also expected to push up from Qayyarah air base.
Once villages around Mosul have been cleared of Islamic State fighters, Iraq’s special forces — also called the counter-terrorism forces — are expected to lead the push into the city of Mosul itself. The special forces were trained for more than a decade by the United States and are now some of Iraq’s most competent ground forces. They have led the ground assault in a number of battles against Islamic State in the past, including the operations to retake Tikrit, Ramadi, Fallujah and the Baiji oil refinery.
What to expect
Although Iraqi forces have won a number of territorial victories against Islamic State over the last year, the Mosul fight is expected to be the most complex yet for the country’s military. Mosul is one of Iraq’s largest cities and still home to more than a million civilians. Both in terms of geography and population, it’s a much larger task than Iraq’s military has ever undertaken previously in the fight against Islamic State.
Iraq’s military has been under enormous pressure to launch the operation to retake Mosul before the end of this year as Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Abadi has repeatedly promised Mosul would be retaken in 2016. Some Iraqi officials are concerned that the operation is being rushed before the country’s politicians have agreed on how the province will be governed after Islamic State is routed.
Iraq remains deeply divided, and the grievances of the country’s Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish populations that facilitated Islamic State’s rise to power have not been resolved. Some Iraqi officials have cautioned that even after Mosul is retaken, violence will erupt again in the form of revenge killings or clashes between groups once allied against a common enemy.