Governors’ races to watch
Polling shows close contests as Democrats try to reverse a GOP trend
RALEIGH, N.C. — North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory was in a fight for his political life. The Republican’s ardent defense of House Bill 2, a law deemed so discriminatory by some sports leagues that they pulled more than a dozen championship events from the state, had left him with strongly unfavorable ratings from moderates. One month before election day, the governor trailed his Democratic opponent by nearly double digits.
Then, the remnants of Hurricane Matthew brought record river levels to parts of the state. At least 22 people died.
McCrory’s presence on TV screens across the state for twice-daily news conferences during the flooding helped his poll numbers greatly — especially his favorability ratings, which jumped from 39% in late August polls to 49% last week.
Democrats hope they can hold onto as many as eight governorships in this election and take two more from the GOP, including McCrory’s seat. There are 12 governorships up for grabs. The Obama years, especially since the emergence of the tea party wing of the Republican Party in 2010, have been brutal for Democrats; during that time they lost 59 out of 94 gubernatorial races.
In late summer, two Democrats had healthy leads that, by fall, have thinned out to nearly even races. Roy Cooper, McCrory’s opponent in North Carolina, and Chris Koster in Missouri now find themselves in tight contests with their GOP opponents.
If Republicans win in toss-up races, they would tie their own record for the most postwar governorships held by one party. They currently hold 31 governorships; Democrats hold 18; and Alaska’s Bill Walker is an independent.
Here’s a rundown of close races to watch in addition to North Carolina:
Indiana
When Gov. Mike Pence dropped out to become Donald Trump’s running mate in July, Republican Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb had to hurriedly step in, giving his opponent, Democrat John Gregg, an early advantage. Gregg’s lead is tightening in conservative Indiana, where Holcomb trailed by 6 points in a poll released Oct. 31. Holcomb outraised Gregg, $7.7 million to Gregg’s $4.5 million in the third quarter, but Gregg maintained about $2 million more in cash on hand.
Vermont
governor will be decided by independent voters. Early polling showed threeterm GOP Lt. Gov. Phil Scott and Democrat Sue Minter in a dead heat, but Scott has since appeared to take the lead. Minter, who was most recently state transportation secretary, has sought to distance herself from deeply unpopular outgoing Gov. Peter Shumlin, also a Democrat, while aligning with popular U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders. Independents have been breaking significantly toward Scott, with 54% to Minter’s 12%.
Missouri
One of the most famous ads of the political season came from Missouri, where a Senate candidate assembled an AR-15 blindfolded to prove his 2nd Amendment bona fides. That candidate, Democrat Chris Koster, demonstrated the lengths candidates must go in the Show Me State to assure voters of their commitment to conservative principles. Koster also supports a bill that eliminates training requirements to carry a concealed weapon. His predecessor, Democrat Jay Nixon, vetoed the bill.
Koster also checked another conservative box with his support of a bill requiring a government ID to vote. But Koster’s doubledigit lead over the summer has thinned considerably. Now, Koster is tied with retired Navy SEAL Eric Greitens, a Republican, 46% to 46%, in a Monmouth poll released in late October.
New Hampshire
The race for governor of New Hampshire has stayed close, with the GOP and Democratic candidates trading a slight lead back and forth late in the election season. Republican Chris Sununu held a 6-point lead over Democrat Colin Van Ostern this summer. Sununu, son of a former GOP governor, and Van Ostern are both members of New Hampshire’s Executive Council, which along with the governor approves spending in the state.
By the fall, Sununu’s lead had weakened slightly, and a Monmouth University telephone survey found Van Ostern leading. By early November, however, Sununu had recaptured a slim lead in both a Boston Globe poll and one by WBUR.
West Virginia
In West Virginia, Democrats appear to have a lead in spite of the national party’s perception in the state. Democrat Jim Justice, a former coal executive, held an 11-point lead over GOP Senate President Bill Cole in an Oct. 12-17 poll by Metro News West Virginia. Cole’s camp responded that its internal polling showed the candidates in a dead heat.
The Obama administration’s arms-length treatment of coal has left state voters deeply suspicious of national Democrats. Justice has worked past Clinton and Obama’s unpopularity in the state by ignoring them completely in his campaign, instead focusing on the business success that has made him West Virginia’s only billionaire.
Montana
Montana’s incumbent governor is another Democrat studiously avoiding comparisons to the national party while fending off a Republican challenger.
Sitting Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock maintains a lead over Republican Greg Gianforte, a Bozeman businessman. A Montana State University Billings poll found support for Bullock at 44% to Gianforte’s 32%, but a Mason-Dixon Polling & Research poll commissioned by Lee Newspapers found Bullock with just a 2-point lead, within the poll’s margin of error.
Like Missouri, candidates here must prove their adherence to conservatism, regardless of party. The same Montana State University poll found voters were slightly opposed to recreational marijuana while judging the Affordable Care Act as a failure for the state.
And here are the races that are considered safe for their respective parties:
Delaware
The lone state to lose its sitting governor but avoid a competitive race, Delaware remains solidly blue. A University of Delaware poll found Democrat John Carney leading Republican Colin Bonini, 54% to 25%.
North Dakota
No polling has been done in North Dakota, where Republican Gov. Jack Dalrymple is retiring, but Republican Doug Burgum, a businessman and former Microsoft executive, is considered a safe bet to defeat Democrat Marvin Nelson.
Oregon
Former Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber’s reign ended last year in scandal. Into the fray stepped Kate Brown, the secretary of State and a Democrat, who is running in a special election. A Republican hasn’t won the governorship here since 1983, and that streak is expected to continue as she runs against little-known Republican Bud Pierce.
Utah
The surprising news out of Utah comes in the presidential race, where the state’s Mormon population has turned against Trump. The governorship here, however, is business as usual. Republicans dominate the Beehive State, and incumbent Gary Herbert is facing no real threat from Democrat Mike Weinholtz.
Washington
Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee maintains a doubledigit lead over Republican Bill Bryant, 51% to 39%, according to pollster Stuart Elway. The liberal state is pulling slightly more for Inslee than it did during the summer, even though his overall approval ratings have been low for most of his term.