It’s a Juvenile haul for the East Coast
Classic Empire wins the race for best 2-year-old, which hasn’t been a great forecaster for Derby.
The Kentucky Derby has been dominated of late by West Coast horses, but that might all be about to change.
The top six horses in the $2-million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile were all East Coast campaigners. In fact, only three of the 11 2-year-old colts entered in the 11⁄16-mile race Saturday were from California.
Classic Empire was the winner by a neck over a charging Not This Time.
The three California horses were Gormley (seventh), Klimt (eighth) and Term Of Art (ninth).
Of course, using this race as a hint about what might happen in the Kentucky Derby is among the more foolhardy propositions. Here are some stats:
Four of the last five Kentucky Derby winners (Nyquist, American Pharoah, California Chrome and I’ll Have Another) were stabled in Southern California.
Only two Juvenile winners (Nyquist and Street Sense in 2006) have gone on to win the Derby.
Of the last five Derby winners, only Nyquist ran in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
So maybe this really doesn’t mean much, which would explain the lack of foreshadowing bravado by owner John Oxley.
“Winter’s coming up first, but I like snow, but [I live] in Florida,” Oxley said. “So I love spring and I love the journey up to the Triple Crown races. Each one will be a wonderful goal and a wonderful stop, we hope. And we hope the good fortune lasts.”
The Juvenile unfolded with Syndergaard taking the lead on the inside over a stalking Classic Empire. The pair ran that way until the far turn, when Classic Empire drew even.
Entering the top of the stretch, Syndergaard had had enough and jockey Julien Leparoux had Classic Empire drawing away. But Not This Time was not about to let him win easily and came with a modest rally toward the finish line that came up short.
Classic Empire (who was sired by Pioneerof The Nile, the same as American Pharoah) has won four of five races. In his only loss, in the Hopeful at Saratoga, he took a sharp right turn out of the gate and unseated his rider.
Classic Empire paid $11.00, $5.00 and $3.80. Not This Time returned $4.60 and $3.40. Practical Joke paid $4.60 to show.
“Couple things amaze me about this horse,” trainer Mark Casse said. “When he won the Bashford Manor at Churchill in June … I’ve been training for 37 years and I thought he was the most impressive 2-year-old winner that I’d ever trained. …
“[Two months later] I said to a few people … we’re going to win the Hopeful today, it’s just a matter of how far. Then, of course, he put me back into reality.”
Reality is a good thing to consider for a lot of these horses. For most it will be their last race of the season. Those that have more question marks than answers might look for a soft spot, such as the Los Alamitos Futurity in December.
Perhaps Nyquist owner Paul Reddam said it best last year when asked if it was too early to start thinking about the Derby.
“When is the Derby?”