Staying low is the key to a high pick
Lakers will need to finish in the top three of the lottery to retain an upper draft choice.
With only a handful of games left in the NBA season, the picture for next month’s draft lottery is sharpening.
Because the Lakers beat the Memphis Grizzlies on Sunday, their lottery position could be determined by chance. After having the 29th-best record in the league for several weeks, the Lakers (22-55) are now half a game better than the Phoenix Suns (22-56).
If the Lakers and Suns lose the rest of their games, they will finish with the same record, giving them similar odds to procure a top-three pick. The Brooklyn Nets are likely to finish the season with the worst record in the league. They are 19-59 after defeating Philadelphia on Tuesday.
Unfortunately for the Nets, whatever draft pick they get will make the rich richer. The Boston Celtics, tied for the best record in the Eastern Conference, have the right to swap first-round picks with the Nets this year, as part of the trade that sent Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to the Nets.
The ping-pong balls used in the draft lottery can emerge in 1,000 combinations. Each individual combination is assigned to a different team that finishes the season ranking 17th through 30th. The team ranking 17th will have a minuscule chance at at top-three pick. That team gets only five combinations, giving it half a percentage point of a chance to get the first overall pick.
The team with the worst record in the NBA gets 250 combinations, and thus has a 25% chance of getting the first pick. That gives that team about a 21.5% chance of getting the second pick and about a 17.8% chance of getting the third. Overall, that team has about a 64% chance of having a pick in the top three.
The team with the second-worst record in the NBA, if it is only one team, will have 199 combinations, and so a 19.9% chance of getting the first pick, an 18.8% chance of getting the second pick and a 17.12% chance of getting the third, making the likelihood of getting a pick in the top three 55.83%.
The team with the thirdworst record, if it is only one team, gets 156 combinations and a 15.60% chance of the first pick, a 15.74% chance of the second pick and a 15.58% chance of the third, giving it about a 47% chance at a topthree pick.
It’s possible the Lakers and Suns finish with the same record. The Suns have four remaining games, against Golden State, Oklahoma City, Dallas and Sacramento. Phoenix has not beaten the Warriors yet this year. The Suns are 1-2 against the Thunder and Kings and they are 2-1 against the Mavericks.
The Lakers, who did not practice Tuesday in favor of visiting Lackland Air Force Base near San Antonio, play the Spurs on Wednesday. They also have the Kings, Timberwolves, Pelicans and Warriors on their schedule. They are winless against the Spurs, but have one win each against the Kings, Minnesota and New Orleans.
If the Lakers and Suns finish with the same record, the league will have a random drawing to break the tie. The winner of the drawing will get 178 combinations and the loser of the drawing will get 177.
The lottery system will choose the teams for the first three picks, and then teams will be slotted according to record starting at the fourth pick.
Having a pick outside the top three isn’t a catastrophe under normal circumstances.
Russell Westbrook was selected fourth overall in 2008, Chris Paul was fourth in 2005 and 2015’s fourth overall pick was Knicks big man Kristaps Porzingis. In 2010, Sacramento selected DeMarcus Cousins fifth overall. Dwyane Wade, Kevin Garnett, Scottie Pippen and Charles Barkley were also No. 5 picks.
And, of course, Warriors star Stephen Curry was the seventh pick in 2009.
The Lakers’ problem is they are still paying for past trades.
If their 2017 first-round pick falls out of the top three, they surrender that pick to the Philadelphia 76ers, as part of the trade through which they acquired Steve Nash in 2012. That pick is tied to their trade for Dwight Howard in the same year. If the Lakers lose this year’s pick, they also have to give their 2019 first-rounder to the Orlando Magic.
If the Lakers remain in the top three, they’ll keep this year’s pick and that 2019 first-round pick. They’ll give Philadelphia next year’s first-round pick and give Orlando two second-round picks instead.
The Lakers won’t be completely out of the first round if they lose their first pick. Magic Johnson’s first trade ensured the Lakers would have at least one first-round pick — a boon in what’s expected to be a deep draft. The Houston Rockets gave the Lakers a first-round pick and Corey Brewer in exchange for Lou Williams just before the trade deadline.
If the Rockets maintain their current third-best record in the NBA, theirs would be the 28th pick in the first round.