Governor’s race is shaping up
The run for state’s top job is attracting big personalities, with bigger battles to come.
Candidates are raising millions and courting allies for California’s top job. Find out who’s in and what’s next.
At a time when California is the epicenter of the liberal resistance to President Trump, Democratic politicians looking to lead the state’s 39 million residents are laying the groundwork for what could shape up to be the most contentious gubernatorial contest in the state in nearly a decade.
Voters won’t cast ballots until 2018, but candidates are already raising millions of dollars and courting donors, key political leaders and activists as they chart their paths for a shot at leading the state that boasts the sixth largest economy in the world.
The state’s next governor will have to grapple with an enormous set of challenges: dealing with a large population of residents who are in the U.S. illegally in the face of Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration, fixing the state’s crumbling infrastructure, managing a budget that is vulnerable to wild gyrations because of its dependence on taxing the incomes of top earners, balancing cities’ and farms’ thirst for water, and many others.
Democrats are dominating the race so far, no surprise given their 19-point edge in voter registration, supermajorities in both houses of the state Legislature and the fact they have held every statewide elected office since 2011.
The players
Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa are a direct contrast in style to the termed-out governor they hope to replace: philosophical, Latin-quoting Jerry Brown. Both are largerthan-life personalities who built their careers, in part, on their personal charisma. The pair, along with state Treasurer John Chiang, are predicating their candidacies on building upon the economic stability Brown forged in the aftermath of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.
Although the candidates running to replace Brown are ideologically similar, their backgrounds and experiences will shape their campaigns.
Newsom, the front-runner in fundraising and early polling, first gained national attention when he granted same-sex marriage licenses in 2004 as mayor of San Francisco. It was so controversial at the time that some of his fellow Democrats blamed him when John Kerry lost the presidential race that year. He also was beset by a scandal of his own making, notably an affair with the wife of a close friend.
He briefly ran for governor in 2009 until it became clear that Brown would make winning difficult.
Newsom settled for lieutenant governor instead, but never hid his restlessness in that role. He was the first to announce his gubernatorial intentions in early 2015.
For Newsom, a longtime darling of the Democratic Party’s base, the path to the governor’s mansion is staked on the state’s most liberal voters, many of whom live in his politically active home base in the Bay Area.
After serving as speaker of the Assembly, Villaraigosa was elected Los Angeles mayor in 2005 and celebrated as the first Latino to hold that position since 1872. But within four years, the luster had faded, due to circumstances both in his control — an extramarital affair — and out of his control — the fallout of the recession. Villaraigosa spent much of the rest of his tenure trying to resurrect his reputation — and the admiration of those who put him into office.
Villaraigosa left elected office in 2013, and voters in his home base of Southern California fail to cast ballots as frequently as their counterparts in the Bay Area.
But as one of the most high-profile Latino politicians in the nation, Villaraigosa is counting on the growing Latino population being motivated to turn out because of Trump’s immigration policy. He also has been courting working-class voters in the Central Valley and the Inland Empire.
Chiang, who served as state controller before being elected treasurer, is trying to run as Brown’s natural pragmatic successor.
He can highlight his stewardship of the state’s finances as he bucked the establishment — in 2011, he docked state lawmakers’ pay for failing to pass a balanced budget.
His campaign frames his candidacy as being the “adult in the room.” But relatively few voters know who he is.
Also running is Delaine Eastin, a former state legislator and state schools’ chief.
She is the only woman in the race but is the least known candidate and has shown no ability to raise money so far.
The Republicans
Rancho Santa Fe venture capitalist John Cox has put $1 million into an exploratory committee. Former GOP Assemblyman David Hadley of Manhattan Beach said he will announce a decision within weeks.
Former Los Angeles Rams football player Rosey Grier has said he plans to run, but has not taken any steps to establish a campaign.
If a Republican does enter the race, he or she would face an uphill battle. Rightleaning consultants say it is not impossible — as long as the person raises $10 million by the end of the year to get noticed.
“Can a Republican possibly win? Sure. Will donors believe that? Not yet,” said Rob Stutzman, who advised former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
The unknowns
Few believe the field is settled. Someone like billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer or a prominent Republican such as San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, who is widely viewed as the GOP’s best chance at winning a statewide office, could scramble the race. Although Faulconer has insisted he is not running, Steyer is leaving his options open.
The future of several other prominent Democrats is in flux, including Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León and Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti. Part of the uncertainty is driven by Sen. Dianne Feinstein, 83, who has not yet said whether she will seek a fifth term in 2018.