POKER

We might adjust our play according to how our opponents view a hand as it plays out. A good friend and student of mine, Dave, played a hand in a World Series of Poker Circuit event that highlights this lesson.

Blinds were at 200-400 plus an ante of 50, and Dave had a stack of about 13,000. Dave believed his table image was that of a tight value player. He was confident with his read that his primary opponent in this hand was a “chaser” who, having shown a propensity to play a wide range of hands, would call a few streets and then fold when he clearly hadn’t improved by the river.

Dave raised to 900 with A♥ J♣ and was called by the button and the small blind.

The flop came K♥ Q♦ 2♠. The small blind checked, Dave continued for 1,100, the button folded, and the small blind called.

The turn was the 8♥, and Dave bet 1,600. After spending a full minute considering, the small blind called.

When the 9♦ hit the river and the small blind checked, what was Dave’s best option? What were the math considerations and patterns in play, and what was the optimal bet size?

Dave opted to shove all in for a little over 9,000, and after a long sweat, he was called by the small blind, who showed 10♠ 2♥. Yes, a pair of twos. So where did this go wrong?

The opponent clearly believed that Dave’s shove confirmed weakness. When your tight table image is due to value betting through the river in the past, you’re not going to convince your opponent that you have the nuts by shoving for more than the size of the pot.

While you want to put pressure on your opponent, you don’t want to give him cause to believe that you want him to fold, whereas a smaller bet would make it appear as if you want him to call. The river scenario put Dave in a tough spot, and earlier adjustments could have helped.

Had Dave bet, say, 1,300 on the flop and 2,600 on the turn, the pot on the river would have been about 11,000, and Dave could have gone all in without having it look like such a big overbet. Betting those slightly larger amounts also would have given Dave the chance to get a read that his opponent might not fold to any bet. Dave could have checked behind on the river and proceeded in the tournament with a stack of about 8,000.

It’s critical to play our opponents for how they think, and for some people, the story making sense matters more than the financial burden they’ll incur if they’re wrong.