LEAD ACTOR
Daniel Day- Lewis, “Phantom Thread” Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour” Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me By Your Name” Jake Gyllenhaal, “Stronger” Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”
On the cusp: James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”; Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”; Andrew Garfield, “Breathe” Lurking: Tom Hanks, “The Post”
Analysis: Like last year, this is not a particularly deep field. With “Get Out” looking like a fairly solid bet to score a best picture nomination, you’d think some of that goodwill might spill over to Kaluuya’s deeply felt, breakthrough turn as the film’s hero. A win or two in the coming weeks with critics’ groups would help his cause.
I haven’t seen Dan Gilroy’s recut version of “Roman J. Israel, Esq.,” but the quality of Washington’s performance was
never an issue. Washington seems particularly invested in the movie and willing to campaign, which could score him an eighth acting nomination.
“Stronger” failed at the box office, grossing just $ 4 million. “Breathe” has fared even worse, managing less than $ 500,000 since opening. Both Garfield and Gyllenhaal have to hope academy members will give their films more of a chance than moviegoers did.
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird” Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water” Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya” Judi Dench, “Victoria & Abdul”
On the cusp: Jessica Chastain, “Molly’s Game”; Kate Winslet, “Wonder Wheel”; Nicole Kidman, “The Beguiled”; Emma Stone, “Battle of the Sexes”
Lurking: Meryl Streep, “The Post”; Vicky Krieps, “Phantom Thread”
Analysis: Streep pulled in her 20th Oscar nod last year for “Florence Foster Jenkins.” Not earning a nomination yet again this year, particularly for a meaty role in a
prestige picture, would be a shock.
Who would go from the women I’ve listed? I think McDormand, Hawkins and Ronan are safe bets ( in that order). Critics mostly dismissed “Victoria & Abdul,” but it’s the kind of crowd- pleaser that winds up surprising a lot of people when nominations are announced. Dench is widely admired. I wouldn’t underestimate her.
“I, Tonya” was the People’s Choice Award runner- up to “Three Billboards” at the Toronto International Film Festival. The Tonya Harding biopic has its fans, though I wonder how widely the academy will embrace Craig Gillespie’s crude black comedy. It opens next month.