Latest polling shows a tale of two races

In governor’s contest, Villaraigosa virtually even with Newsom. Feinstein leads big in Senate reelection bid.

SACRAMENTO — With less than four months to go until the June 5 primary, Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa are running practically neck and neck in the 2018 race for governor, according to a new poll by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California.

California’s U.S. Senate race is a much different story. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who is seeking a fifth full term, leads by a wide margin over her most formidable challenger, state Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León of Los Angeles, the survey found.

All four of those top candidates are Democrats, showing just how dismal the prospects are for a Republican Party that has not won a statewide election in California since 2006.

The polls’ results largely mirror the findings in an earlier PPIC poll released in late November, though the race between Newsom and Villaraigosa has tightened.

PPIC President Mark Baldassare said the polls indicate that Newsom and Villaraigosa are solidified as the two front-runners leading into the primary. That’s significant because in California the two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the November general election, regardless of party.

But Baldassare cautioned that there is still time for political fortunes to rise and fall, especially given the volatility in Washington and, recently, on Wall Street.

In the governor’s race, Newsom was favored by 23% of likely voters in the state, with Villaraigosa close behind at 21% — well within the poll’s margin of error.

Newsom also leads the entire field in fundraising, giving him a major advantage in the home stretch of the primary campaign.

The other Democrats in the race lagged far behind. State Treasurer John Chiang came in at 9% and former state schools chief Delaine Eastin registered at 4%.

Among the Republicans, Huntington Beach Assemblyman Travis Allen was favored by 8% of likely voters, narrowly leading wealthy Rancho Santa Fe businessman John Cox, who was backed by 7%. Former Sacramento-area Rep. Doug Ose, who entered the race in January, was backed by just 3%.

Nearly a quarter of the likely voters questioned in the survey remained undecided.

All three Republicans in the race have emphasized their support for President Trump which, according to the poll, doesn’t seem to mesh with how California voters feel. Two-thirds of likely voters disapprove of the way the president has handled himself in office.

On the other hand, Republican support for repealing California’s recently approved gas tax could be a winning campaign message. State voters are evenly split on the idea, the poll showed.

Both Newsom and Villaraigosa had by far the highest name recognition among voters, but nearly a third of those surveyed had a unfavorable opinion of them — compared to 40% who had a favorable opinion — according to the poll.

Newsom’s strongest base of support is in the Bay Area, not surprising since he served two terms as mayor of San Francisco, as well as with self-described liberals. For Villaraigosa, the strongest support came from Latino voters, and he had a solid edge in Los Angeles County.

In the Senate race, Feinstein leads across the board: among men and women, all ethnicities and all major geographic regions of the state. The Democratic incumbent also leads among Latino voters and in Los Angeles County, De León’s home base.

“Feinstein is leading strong in areas where you think her challenger would need to do well,” Baldassare said.

Baldassare said De León’s poor showing is due in large part to the fact that he remains unknown to most California voters. Close to two-thirds of those polled had never heard of him or didn’t know enough about him to offer an opinion.