Gulf Coast braces for flooding
3 governors declare states of emergency as Subtropical Storm Alberto bears down.
MIAMI — Florida, Alabama and Mississippi launched emergency preparations Saturday ahead of the arrival of Subtropical Storm Alberto, a slow-moving system expected to cause wet misery across the eastern U.S. Gulf Coast over the holiday weekend.
Cuba was being pounded by rain along its western coast, raising the threat of flash floods and mudslides. The National Hurricane Center in Miami said the island’s rain totals could reach 15 inches — and even 25 inches in isolated areas.
Heavy downpours were expected to begin lashing parts of Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama on Sunday. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of Florida and Alabama, where tropical storm conditions are possible by early Monday.
The governors of Florida, Alabama and Mississippi all declared states of emergency Saturday in anticipation of the storm.
About 5 to 10 inches of rain are possible along affected areas in eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, western Tennessee and the western Florida Panhandle. Isolated areas could see as much as 15 inches.
Under overcast skies and occasional drizzle, several Gulfport, Miss., residents lined up to fill 10- and 20pound bags with sand they will use to block any encroaching floodwater expected as a result of Alberto.
Tommy Whitlock said sandbagging has become a usual event in his life since he lives next to a creek.
“I’m doing this because every time we have a hard rain, it floods at my house,” Whitlock said. “We get water from other neighborhoods, and water can get up to a foot deep in some places.”
Eddy Warner, a retired consultant for a construction company, filled bags while waiting for his nephew to come help take them home to protect his garage.
“I’m 65 years old, and too old to be doing this,” he said, laughing.
Alberto — the first named storm of the 2018 hurricane season that officially starts June 1 — is expected to strengthen until it reaches the northern Gulf Coast, probably on Monday night.
The National Weather Service said waves as high as 18 feet could pound the popular gulf beaches in Baldwin County, Ala., and northwestern Florida on Monday. A high-surf warning is in effect through 7 p.m. Tuesday.
By early Saturday evening in Florida, the National Hurricane Center said Alberto was about 95 miles north of the western tip of Cuba and moving north at 13 mph. The storm had top sustained winds of 40 mph and was expected to strengthen as it moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
A subtropical storm like Alberto has a less defined and cooler center than a tropical storm, and its strongest winds are found farther from its center. Subtropical storms can develop into tropical storms, which in turn can strengthen into hurricanes.
A tropical storm warning remained in effect for Cuba’s western Pinar del Rio province, where heavy rains could trigger flash floods and mudslides, the National Hurricane Center said.
Mexico canceled its watch for the resort-dotted coast of the Yucatan peninsula, where the storm brought heavy rain.
There were no immediate reports of emergencies. In Cancun, local newspapers showed scenes of some streets flooded to mid-hubcap level.
The downpours could dampen Memorial Day, the unofficial start of the summer tourist season along gulf beaches. Along with heavy rains and high winds come rough seas and a threat of rip currents from Florida to Louisiana that can sweep swimmers out to sea.
Tracey Gasper and her 6year-old son, Chase, traveled to Biloxi Beach, Miss., from Donaldsonville, La., for the day with a group of friends from Baton Rouge, the Louisiana capital. The weather had scared off the usual crowds expected for the holiday weekend.
“It was a 50-50 chance of whether to come down, and we decided to chance it,” Gasper said.
Alberto’s arrival comes just days after U.S. government forecasters said that they expected an active Atlantic hurricane season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast released Thursday calls for 10 to 16 named storms, including five to nine hurricanes. One to four hurricanes could be “major,” with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
If that forecast holds, it would make for a near-normal or above-normal season. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
“There are no strong climate signals saying it’s going to be extremely active, like last year, or extremely weak,” said Gerry Bell, the lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Forecasters said they still expect this year to see the kind of atmospheric and oceanic conditions that have been producing stronger Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995.
If an El Niño develops this summer, it could suppress storm development during the season’s peak months from August through October. El Niño is the natural warming of parts of the Pacific Ocean that changes weather worldwide and tends to reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
Warm waters feed a hurricane’s strength, while strong wind shear can pull it apart. If El Niño does not develop and water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea warm up, that could fuel more storm development, said Bell, speaking at NOAA’s aircraft operations center in Lakeland, Fla. That facility is the base for the agency’s “hurricane hunter” aircraft that fly into storms to collect data used in storm forecasts.
NOAA predicted that 2017 would be an above-average season, and it certainly was: A trio of devastating hurricanes — Harvey, Irma and Maria — ravaged Texas, Florida, Puerto Rico and many Caribbean islands. Overall, last year saw 17 named storms, including 10 hurricanes.
Officials warned all coastal residents not to wait to make evacuation plans or preparations for protecting their homes and businesses.
“When you are predicting an active season, that’s when you have more storms forming in the tropical Atlantic, and those storms tend to track farther west,” Bell said. “That’s why the Caribbean and the U.S. coast are more at risk.”