Poll finds Newsom has strong lead over Cox

SACRAMENTO — Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom has a dominant lead over the wealthy Rancho Santa Fe businessman John Cox in the race for California governor, according to a new poll by the Public Policy Institute of California.

Opportunities for Cox to pick up support before the November election also appear to be limited, with just 9% of likely voters saying they were undecided.

“The electorate is very polarized today. For Republicans, it’s hard to imagine voting for a Democrat. For Democrats, it’s hard to imagine voting for a Republican,” PPIC President Mark Baldassare said.

That could spell bad news for Cox: In California, Democrats have a 19-percentage-point advantage over the GOP in voter registration.

According to the survey, Newsom was backed by 55% of likely voters compared with 31% supporting Cox. Among those polled, 5% said they did not plan to cast a vote for governor. Newsom was favored by 86% of likely Democratic voters, and Cox was favored by nearly an identical percentage of Republican voters.

Among independents — voters registered as “no party preference” — 41% supported Newsom and 33% backed Cox, the survey found. That’s also not a good sign for Cox, Baldassare said.

“For a Republican to succeed in this state, you have to do very, very well among independents and probably get some Democrats along the way,” he said. “[Newsom] is in a very comfortable place in this early stage of this governor’s election.”

Newsom led Cox among almost every demographic category, including racial and ethnic identity, income, education level and gender.

Cox’s strongest support was in the Inland Empire, which includes Riverside and San Bernardino counties. The Republican is neck and neck with Newsom in the Central Valley. Newsom had strong support in the state’s two major population centers: Los Angeles County and the San Francisco Bay Area.

The PPIC poll also found that 87% of likely voters said the candidates’ positions on environmental issues was important to determining who they would support. Their top environmental concern: water supply and drought.