STAT CORNER

The Favorite Toy is a method invented by Bill James that takes into account a player’s age and performance to predict how likely he is to reach career milestones. Last week we looked at hitters; this week it’s the top 10 active pitchers in wins and strikeouts (as of Thursday) and the chances, represented as a percentage, that Favorite Toy predicts they have of reaching 300 wins or 3,000 strikeouts.

300 wins

1. Bartolo Colon ............ 245 wins, 0%

2. CC Sabathia ......................... 243, 8%

3. Justin Verlander .................. 198, 4%

4. Zack Greinke ...................... 183, 12%

5. Jon Lester ................................ 171, 1%

6. Felix Hernandez .................. 168, 0%

7. Max Scherzer ....................... 154, 8%

8. Cole Hamels ......................... 152, 0%

9. Ervin Santana ...................... 149, 0%

10. Clayton Kershaw ............... 147, 17%

3,000 strikeouts

1. CC Sabathia .............. 2,923 Ks, 97%

2. Justin Verlander ........... 2,599, 97%

3. Bartolo Colon ................... 2,522, 0%

4. Felix Hernandez ........... 2,436, 59%

5. Zack Greinke .................. 2,373, 83%

6. Cole Hamels .................... 2,341, 56%

7. Max Scherzer .................. 2,338, 97%

8. Clayton Kershaw ........... 2,203, 97%

9. James Shields ................... 2,184, 7%

10. Jon Lester ....................... 2,135, 49%