Astros’ strength:
An improved bullpen enhances effective rotation as Houston faces Cleveland.
At f irst glance
The Astros, who finished the season with the second-most wins in baseball, won the American League West by six games despite the late surge of the Oakland Athletics. The Astros lost their final game of the season but were 8-2 over the last 10 games on their way to a 21-6 record in September, which was their best month of the year.
Pitching, again, has been their forte this season — even more so with an improved bullpen. Houston relievers had a 3.03 earned-run average in 2018, best in the majors.
The Indians, the American League Central winners, glided into the postseason. Their division featured just one other team that won more than 75 games. The Indians finished ahead of the Twins by 13 games.
Although they faced the path of least resistance to reach the postseason for a third straight year, the Indians did not arrive by default. They outhit the Astros (Cleveland batted .259 and slugged .434; Houston batted .255 and slugged .425) and used speed to their advantage.
Why Astros should win
The Astros led baseball in overall ERA (3.11), starting rotation ERA (3.16) and bullpen ERA (3.03). Houston pitchers held opponents to a majors-low .217 batting average and limited them to 152 home runs. Astros pitchers piled on the strikeouts too, leading the majors with 1,687.
Game 1 starter Justin Verlander led the staff with 290 strikeouts in 34 starts.
Troubled by a back injury, shortstop Carlos Correa became something of a nonfactor for the Astros. He batted just .239 with 15 home runs and 65 RBIs in 109 games. His 1.7 wins above replacement, according to Baseball-Reference.com, was the lowest of his career.
How the Indians can win
If they can get to Verlander in Game 1, the Indians could at least extend the series to four games. The Indians have always given Verlander fits. He has a 4.71 ERA in 52 starts against Cleveland.
The Indians can press the issue by leaning on their offense, as they’ve been forced to do this year because of a faulty bullpen. They’re patient at the plate, their 1,189 strikeouts the fewest in baseball. Once they get on base, they’re a threat to run. They lead the majors with 135 stolen bases.
Who’s coming in hot
Former All-Star closer Roberto Osuna, whom Houston acquired in a highly debated trade with the Toronto Blue Jays while he was still suspended for violating MLB’s domestic violence policy, was perfect in save chances (12 of 12) and had a 1.99 ERA in 23 games for the Astros after he returned from suspension.
The Indians acquired Josh Donaldson from the Blue Jays in time for the Aug. 31 postseason eligibility deadline. The former AllStar hit .280 (14 for 50) with seven RBI, three homers and three doubles in 16 games after being activated on Sept. 11.
Donaldson has batted .292 with an .836 on-base-plus-slugging percentage in 31 postseason games.
Who’s coming in cold
Houston’s Altuve drove in 10 runs and scored 15 times in September, but the All-Star second baseman batted only .267 with a .370 OBP and .395 slugging percentage. His month capped a second half in which he hit .276; he had hit .332 in the first half of the season.
The Indians’ Ramirez did not break .200 in September. He drove in 11 runs and scored 19, but his .174/ .322/.315 finish to the season dropped his overall average from .288 to .270 in a span of 25 games.
Season series
The Astros won the season series 4-3. The teams haven’t faced each other since consecutive weekends in May.
Prediction Astros in four games.