Red Sox have advantage:
New York is powerful, but Boston should win with deep offense.
At f irst glance
The Red Sox, who finished the season with the most wins in baseball, were on an inside track for their third consecutive American League East title from the start. They began the 2018 season with a 15-2 record, scoring 108 runs in those 17 games, and never slowed down.
Led by AL most-valuable-player candidates Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, the offense batted a majors-best .268 and also led baseball in on-base percentage (.339) and slugging percentage (.453). Red Sox hitters made a lot of contact, with their 1,253 strikeouts ranking 26th-fewest of the 30 teams.
New York reestablished itself as baseball’s most powerful team. Although the Yankees were outslugged by the Red Sox (their .451 slugging percentage ranked second), they crushed a major leaguebest 267 home runs and broke the previous single-season team record of 264 during the last weekend of the season in Fenway Park.
Why Red Sox should win
The Yankees may launch homers at a pace not previously seen, but their offense is not as wellrounded as the Red Sox’s. Boston hit 208 home runs, 31 triples and 355 doubles (leading the majors) this season.
They also ranked sixth in walks with 569. The Red Sox also stole the third-most bases in the major leagues.
Plus, there was no one better at home than the Red Sox, who had a 57-24 record at Fenway Park and own home-field advantage through the postseason.
As a unit, the Red Sox pitching staff did not outdo the reigning World Series Champion Houston Astros or even the Cleveland Indians, Houston’s opponent in the other ALDS.
But starters Chris Sale, David Price and Rick Porcello rarely crumpled this season, combining for a 3.39 ERA. How Yankees can win
Power pitching from the Yankees could provide them the edge they need to advance to the AL Championship Series for the second year in a row. But they will need to neutralize right-handed hitter Steve Pearce, who batted .297 with a .395 OBP and .757 slugging percentage against the Yankees this season.
On the final weekend of the regular season, Pearce tagged Yankees starter J.A. Happ with a grand slam at Fenway Park.
The Yankees’ bats too have enough juice to challenge the Red Sox. The trick might be getting to the Red Sox bullpen early, as manager Alex Cora has had trouble constructing a bridge to closer Craig Kimbrel.
Who’s coming in hot
Among Red Sox players who appeared in at least 20 games, utility man Brock Holt was second to Betts in average in September. He batted .354 in 20 games.
The Yankees acquired Luke Voit from the St. Louis Cardinals and quickly reaped the benefits. He took over first base from Greg Bird, a decision that made rookie manager Aaron Boone look good when Voit turned in a 1.095 OPS with 14 home runs, five doubles and 33 RBIs in 39 games.
Who’s coming in cold
The Red Sox have not seen much production from Ian Kinsler, the shortstop they acquired from the Angels at the trade deadline. Kinsler in September batted .190 with 10 RBIs and eight runs scored. Giancarlo Stanton slumped through September. He was second on the Yankees with 16 RBIs, but he reached base at only a .306 clip.
Season series
The Red Sox won the season series 10-9. They outscored the Yankees by a narrow 116-102 margin.
Prediction Red Sox in five games.