Path to qualify ballot measures is made harder

High voter turnout in governor’s race means costlier campaigns.

SACRAMENTO — Groups seeking a change in the law or California’s Constitution will find it significantly harder — and more costly — to qualify ballot measures beginning next year, following high voter turnout in the Nov. 6 statewide election.

State law links the number of voter signatures required on an initiative or referendum to the total number of votes cast in the most recent election of a governor. The threshold for qualifying a measure was at its lowest point in decades for elections in 2016 and 2018, after record low turnout in 2014 for the reelection of Gov. Jerry Brown.

Last month’s election, however, saw more than 12.4 million votes cast in the race between Gov.-elect Gavin Newsom and Republican businessman John Cox. By law, proponents of an initiative must gather signatures equal to 5% or 8% of the total votes cast in the gubernatorial contest — depending on whether the initiative seeks to create a statute or a constitutional amendment. A ballot referendum, which asks voters to overturn a law passed by the Legislature, requires signatures equal to 5% of the governor’s race votes.

Unofficial election tallies show initiative campaigns will need to collect 620,439 valid signatures for statutory measures appearing on the November 2020 ballot — compared with 365,880 signatures the last two election cycles. Constitutional amendments will go from needing 585,407 valid signatures to requiring at least 992,702 signatures.

Political professionals who specialize in ballot measure campaigns were certain that the bar would be raised and costs would go up after this election cycle. One campaign — an effort to revise the property tax rules under Proposition 13 — intentionally sped up its ballot measure circulation push, collecting signatures this year under the lower threshold and thus finding an easier and cheaper path to the November 2020 ballot.

Last month’s election totals will also raise the bar for legislative review of proposed ballot measures. A 2014 state law gives initiative proponents a chance for formal hearings on the proposal once they’ve gathered at least 25% of the signatures needed for certification. But those hearings do not have to be convened before the initiative earns a spot on the next scheduled statewide general election ballot.