YOUR OSCAR BALLOT
Academy members are busy voting, and if you’re in an Oscar pool, you’ll soon have to make your picks too. Here’s a first crack at predictions. Check online next week, as I may revise some of these after talking to more voters, particularly about those har
It’s not just a checklist. It’s a guide with winning advice from our own Glenn Whipp.
Best Picture
❏ “Black Panther”
❏ “BlacKkKlansman”
❏ “Bohemian Rhapsody”
❏ “The Favourite”
❏ “Green Book”
❏ “Roma”
❏ “A Star Is Born”
❏ “Vice”
And the winner is: “Roma” picked up 10 noms, including two for acting. That across-the-board strength, plus the preferential ballot, gives it the edge.
Director
❏ Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
❏ Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”
❏ Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
❏ Adam McKay, “Vice”
❏ Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”
And the winner is: Cuarón won the Directors Guild honor — along with every other prize. There’s no reason to suspect he won’t prevail here too.
Lead Actor
❏ Christian Bale, “Vice”
❏ Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
❏ Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
❏ Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
❏
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
And the winner is: Even voters who don’t like “Bohemian Rhapsody” are able to separate their disdain for the film from their appreciation for Malek’s sweatsoaked turn.
Lead Actress
❏ Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
❏ Glenn Close, “The Wife”
❏ Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
❏ Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
❏ Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
And the winner is: Close locked in the Oscar when she delivered that spectacular speech at the Golden Globes. Plus, she’s great in “The Wife.”
Supporting Actor
❏ Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
❏ Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
❏ Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
❏ Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
❏ Sam Rockwell, “Vice”
And the winner is: The popular Ali takes his second Oscar in three years for a turn that even “Green Book” haters admire.
Supporting Actress
❏ Amy Adams, “Vice”
❏ Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
❏ Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
❏ Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
❏ Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”
And the winner is: The well-respected King wins for her work in a film that many feel should have earned more nominations.
Original Screenplay
❏ “The Favourite,” Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
❏ “First Reformed,” Paul Schrader
❏ “Green Book,” Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
❏ “Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón
❏ “Vice,” Adam McKay
And the winner is: Witty, wicked and delightfully absurd, “The Favourite” receives its due here.
Adapted Screenplay
❏ “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
❏ “BlacKkKlansman,” Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee
❏ “Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
❏ “If Beale Street Could Talk,” Barry Jenkins
❏ “A Star Is Born,” Eric Roth and Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters
And the winner is: With Cuarón winning director, this becomes the spot to give Spike Lee his first Oscar for the blistering “BlacKkKlansman.”
Animated Feature
❏ “Incredibles 2”
❏ “Isle of Dogs”
❏ “Mirai”
❏ “Ralph Breaks the Internet”
❏ “Spider-Man: Into the SpiderVerse”
And the winner is: “Spider-Man” has swung through the awards season with ease.
Documentary Feature
❏ “Free Solo”
❏ “Hale County This Morning, This Evening”
❏ “Minding the Gap”
❏ “Of Fathers and Sons”
❏ “RBG”
And the winner is: It’s “RBG,” as much for its subject as its filmmaking.
Foreign-Language Feature
❏ “Capernaum”
❏ “Cold War”
❏ “Never Look Away”
❏ “Roma”
❏ “Shoplifters”
And the winner is: “Roma” wins easy … but this Oscar might also complicate its chances for best picture.
Cinematography
❏ “Cold War”
❏ “The Favourite”
❏ “Never Look Away”
❏ “Roma”
❏ “A Star Is Born”
And the winner
is: Another Oscar for Cuarón, the first time a director has won for serving as his own director of photography.
Film Editing
❏ “BlacKkKlansman”
❏ “Bohemian Rhapsody”
❏ “The Favourite”
❏ “Green Book”
❏ “Vice”
And the winner is: I’d like to think “BlacKkKlansman,” but I have a bad feeling the hyperactive “Bohemian Rhapsody” will win.
Costume Design
❏ “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”
❏ “Black Panther”
❏ “The Favourite”
❏ “Mary Poppins Returns”
❏ “Mary Queen of Scots”
And the winner is: It feels counterintuitive to bet against three-time winner Sandy Powell for a costume drama (“The Favourite”), but Ruth E. Carter is overdue, and her work on “Black Panther” is terrific.
Makeup and Hairstyling
❏ “Border”
❏ “Mary Queen of Scots”
❏ “Vice”
And the winner is: Transforming Christian Bale into Dick Cheney makes this a no-brainer.
Production Design
❏ “Black Panther”
❏ “The Favourite”
❏ “First Man”
❏ “Mary Poppins Returns”
❏ “Roma”
And the winner is: “Black Panther” and “The Favourite” both won prizes from the Art Directors Guild. Give the slight edge to the Marvel film in this true toss-up.
Score
❏ “Black Panther”
❏ “BlacKkKlansman”
❏ “If Beale Street Could Talk”
❏ “Isle of Dogs”
❏ “Mary Poppins Returns”
And the winner is: Nicholas Britell’s rapturous, jazz-informed score was one of “Beale Street’s” most memorable elements.
Song
❏ “All the Stars”
❏ “I’ll Fight”
❏ “The Place Where Lost Things Go”
❏ “Shallow”
❏ “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings”
And the winner is: “Shallow.” One last time: “Haaaaaaahhhh-ahhh-ohhhh-ahhaaaaaa-ahhhh-ahhh-ohhhhah!!!”
Sound Editing
❏ “Black Panther”
❏ “Bohemian Rhapsody”
❏ “First Man”
❏ “A Quiet Place”
❏ “Roma”
And the winner is: Each of the nominees has a plausible path to victory. I’ll go with “First Man,” as space movies have a history of taking flight here.
Sound Mixing
❏ “Black Panther”
❏ “Bohemian Rhapsody”
❏ “First Man”
❏ “Roma”
❏ “A Star Is Born”
And the winner is: Music is always a plus in this category, so I’m leaning ever so slightly toward “A Star Is Born,” because at least it’s a decent movie.
Visual Effects
❏ “Avengers: Infinity War”
❏ “Christopher Robin”
❏ “First Man”
❏ “Ready Player One”
❏ “Solo: A Star Wars Story”
And the winner is: Marvel has never won this category. That changes this year with “Avengers.”
Animated Short
❏ “Animal Behaviour”
❏ “Bao”
❏ “Late Afternoon”
❏ “One Small Step”
❏ “Weekends”
And the winner is: “Bao,” Pixar’s tear-jerker, is the favorite, but the surreal “Weekends” could be poised for an upset.
Documentary Short
❏ “Black Sheep”
❏ “End Game”
❏ “Lifeboat”
❏ “A Night at the Garden”
❏ “Period. End of Sentence”
And the winner is: “Period. End of Sentence” is an inspiring look at rural Indian women combating cultural taboos. Add an Oscar to the pile of awards it has already won.
Live-Action Short
❏ “Detainment”
❏ “Fauve”
❏ “Marguerite”
❏ “Mother”
❏ “Skin”
And the winner is: “Marguerite” and “Fauve” are the best of the nominees. I’ll give the edge to the tender “Marguerite” for its melancholy look at an elderly woman contemplating an old romance.