Derby jinx strikes out against the statistics
Pederson took big swings, but most players who have ‘slumped’ after the break didn’t do that poorly.
Fear not, Joc Pederson fans. There is no evidence to back up the contention that participating in the Home Run Derby ruins the second half for hitters, except for a generic “Look what happened to Pederson in 2015!”
Of course, the fact Pederson began slumping before the Home Run Derby that year is ignored.
Before the 2015 All-Star game, Pederson hit .230/.364/.487 with 20 homers and an OPS+ of 139. After the All-Star game he hit .178/.317/ .300 with six homers and an OPS+ of 71. Obviously the home run contest did him in. But wait. Let’s take a closer look.
In his last 20 games before the 2015 All-Star game, Pederson hit .159/.266/.304, which is even worse than what he did after the All-Star game. So, Pederson’s slump started around mid-June, almost one month before the All-Star break.
How can we blame the Home Run Derby for something that was already happening? We can’t.
The entire Home Run Derby jinx is urban legend, with no facts to back it up. The biggest example most people use is Chris Davis, who hit 37 homers before the 2013 Derby and only 16 after. But do we really think Davis was going to hit 70 homers that season? His overall numbers were still excellent after the break, so saying it jinxed him is a reach.
Davis is no different from Reggie Jackson in 1969, long before there was a Home Run Derby. He had 37 homers at the break. After the break, he hit 11. If that happened now, everyone would be screaming that the Home Run Derby had ruined him (though it would have been great to see Jackson in a Home Run Derby).
Also keep in mind that most players are selected to compete in the Derby because they are having a monstrous first half. Mike Trout, the best player in baseball for the last six seasons, has a career OPS+ of 176, making him the active leader. (OPS+ compares hitters to the league average. An average hitter will have an OPS+ of 100. Trout’s 176 means he is 76% better than the average hitter over the same time.) Only two active players have a career OPS+ of at least 150 and only 34 players in history have a career OPS+ of at least 150.
But from 2012 to 2018, 24 of the 58 Home Run Derby competitors had an OPS+ over 150 at the time. There was no place for them to go but down, and all but four did. Those four: David Wright in 2013 (from 151 to 154), Jose Bautista in 2014 (158-174), Giancarlo Stanton in 2014 (163-182) and Charlie Blackmon in 2017 (151-182). The other 20 didn’t suffer from a jinx, they just regressed to normal.
Of the 58 Home Run Derby participants from 2012 to 2018, only eight had what could be considered a below-average second half, meaning an OPS+ below 100 after the break. Those eight: Mark Trumbo (162-74) in 2012, Carlos Gonzalez (180-99) in 2012, Pedro Alvarez (127-95) in 2013, Albert Pujols (137-91) in 2015, Joc Pederson (13971) in 2015, Todd Frazier (155-80) in 2015, Wil Myers (133-91) in 2016 and Miguel Sano in 2017 (140-97). And we’ve already talked about Pederson.
Among those players who have improved after the Derby: Corey Seager, who had an OPS+ of 135 before the 2016 break and 138 after.
Only one player has gone into the Derby with an OPS+ of below 100, Yoenis Cespedes (97) in 2013. After the break his OPS+ was 114.
Max Muncy took part in last year’s Home Run Derby. He had an OPS+ of 177 in the first half and 149 in the second half. A normal regression where he still remained well above average.
Some players get worse after the break, some get better, and some stay the same. But now we have something to peg it to. Something we can blame it on. It is human nature to want to find something to blame. But we’ve picked the wrong thing.