Mahomes is the key guy in a pick-’em
Editor’s note: Each week VSiN.com experts provide their take on Las Vegas sports betting action involving NFL, and local college and pro games. Fogle analyzes the games of the Los Angeles area pro and college teams.
Early betting for Sunday’s Super Bowl has been clear-cut.
Kansas City gets hit hard at pick-’em. Chiefs backers can’t believe they can ride this at such a cheap price. San Francisco money comes in just as hard whenever the 49ers get either 1 or 1 1 ⁄2 points.
It will be interesting to see whether Nevada prices drift from those in New Jersey and other legal jurisdictions. San Francisco has been a virtual home team for NFL betting interests in Las Vegas and Reno dating back decades. Locals will jam sportsbooks through Super Bowl weekend. Sportsbooks all over the country must manage risk based on their own exposure.
Two big questions loom over the early handicapping analysis:
Which player is most likely to impose his will in a virtual pick-’em?
Obviously, that’s Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He can seemingly pull touchdowns out of thin air with his arms or legs.
A bet on Kansas City means you’re positioned to win the Super Bowl clean behind another great Mahomes performance or sneak through to steal a victory in the final seconds with a game-winning score.
The Chiefs have won their last seven games by 11, 20, 10, 23, 20, 7 and 31 points, with the seven-point victory coming at New England.
You can see why avid Chiefs fans are confident and why casual bettors think Kansas City is the safer bet.
Mahomes provides insurance that 49ers offensive threats Jimmy Garoppolo and Raheem Mostert just don’t offer.
Which coach is most likely to blow the game?
Just as obviously, that’s Kansas City’s Andy Reid. He’s notorious for postseason failures when favored. Even in the AFC championship win over tired Tennessee, late-game clock management was abysmal.
Also, you have to worry about how well-coached is the Chiefs defense. It has a knack for jumping offside at the worst time. And how about that pass-interference infraction on third and 22 from the 25-yard line? Just let the guy catch the ball to set up a field goal. Instead, an automatic first down led to a Titans touchdown.
Kansas City’s defense definitely improved down the stretch. But did it improve enough to honor pro football’s mantra that defense wins championships? Can it overcome coaching miscues to protect a late lead?
Bettors who see those issues creating a true coin flip will pass the team side and focus on the over/under and proposition bets. Many have already pounded the over, lifting the total from an opener of 52 to 541⁄2.
Countless props will continue to go up on the board to attract fans through the fortnight.
In Pac-12 action
USC earned a lot of market (and national) respect with a big weekend in Oregon. What looks like a 1-1 split in the standings was actually a huge performance against market expectations.
The Trojans (+91⁄2) took No. 12 Oregon to overtime before losing 79-70. That’s 91⁄2 points better than projected in regulation, although bettors had to sweat the overtime.
Also, USC (+31⁄2) crushed Oregon State 75-55 in a game in which it could have been flat after a heartbreaking loss. You can tell the market expected a drained performance making the Trojans 31⁄2-point underdogs. Home-court advantage by itself is usually worth about three points in college basketball. Oregon State lost to inconsistent UCLA two nights earlier.
Members of the selection committee might not study point-spread performances, but USC taking Oregon to overtime on the road would have to be considered a good loss however you slice it. Following that with a road rout is icing on the cake.
Bettors know that the Trojans are 5-0 against the spread since a bad loss at Washington. That includes a 74-63 win over UCLA in Pauley Pavilion as a small underdog.
This recent run has placed the Trojans firmly on the NCAA tournament bubble. Usually about the top 50 in respected computer rankings earn invitations, with the rest going to muchlower-ranked automatic bids for smaller conferences.
Here’s a peek at national computer rankings entering the new week for those interested in evaluating upcoming schedule strengths and the conference race:
Ken Pomeroy (kenpom.com): Arizona 12, Oregon 16, Colorado 19, Stanford 37, Washington 46, USC 51, Arizona State 79, Oregon State 97, Utah 113, Washington State 130, UCLA 133, California 181.
Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): Oregon 17, Arizona 21, Colorado 25, Stanford 48, USC 50, Arizona State 62, Washington 65, Utah 82, Oregon State 105, UCLA 119, Washington State 133, California 184.
ESPN’s BPI: Arizona 7, Oregon 13, Colorado 31, USC 49, Stanford 56, Washington 72, Arizona State 82, Oregon State 96, Utah 117, Washington State 136, UCLA 138, California 198.
USC’s average ranking is 50, within a very tight 49-51 range. UCLA remains way off the postseason radar despite upsetting Oregon State on Thursday as an 81⁄2-point underdog. More notice was taken of Sunday’s 96-75 loss at Oregon as a 12point underdog.
USC and UCLA will host Utah and Colorado this week. Thursday, it’s Colorado at UCLA and Utah at USC. Saturday is Colorado at USC and Sunday is Utah at UCLA.
A few point-spread performance notes from the Pac-12:
Best against the spread: Stanford 13-6, Oregon 13-8, USC 12-8.
Worst against the spread: California 7-12, Washington State 8-12-1.
Going over the total: Oregon 14-6-1, Oregon State 13-7.
Staying under the total: Stanford 12-5-2, USC 13-7, Arizona State 12-7, Washington State 12-8-1.