Take the over with Chiefs, or not
Editor’s note: Each week VSIN.com experts provide their take on Las Vegas sports betting action involving NFL, and local college and pro games. Tuley shares his best NFL bets. Fogle analyzes the games of the Los Angeles area pro and college teams.
Whom do you like? That’s what everyone wants to know as we come up on Super Bowl Sunday with the Kansas City Chiefs wavering between 1- and 1.5point favorites over the San Francisco 49ers.
For years we’ve talked about the strategy of being an underdog-or-pass bettor. So, you would assume we’re taking the underdog 49ers. However, we can’t pull the trigger on the 49ers as we think the Chiefs are the better overall team and more likely to pull out the win with Patrick Mahomes and the high-flying offense, plus an improved defense.
The same thing happened last year when it was assumed we would be on the Rams against the New England Patriots, but we were unwilling to bet against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. It was a smart decision to pass on the Rams as the Patriots won 13-3 in the lowest-scoring Super Bowl ever. Our biggest bet was over 56, so we missed that by 40 points.
So, take it with a grain of salty Super Bowl snacks when we say take the over again, although it was better when it opened around 51 to 51.5 before getting bet as high as 55.5 and settling in at 54.5. While the 49ers certainly have a very good defense, the modern game still favors the offense and the Chiefs just have too many weapons to be contained the whole game. In addition, while the Chiefs defense has improved, the 49ers should still have offensive success with Raheem Mostert running wild and setting up quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo off play-action.
Even though the dog-orpass philosophy emphasizes the “pass” part, this is the Super Bowl, after all, so we’re making our best bet a six-point teaser with the Chiefs +4.5 and over 48.5.
It makes sense in this matchup as you can expect it to be a back-and-forth, high-scoring game. While the Chiefs should win, this protects us in case the 49ers pull out a three- or fourpoint win in a close game or if the Chiefs need to get in the back door to cover the teaser. Meanwhile, the over 48.5 gives us back those earlier lower numbers we missed.
As we said last week, our top prop bet recommendations as based on expecting this to be a close game:
“Yes” on “Will there be a tie after 0-0?’ (-110).
“Under” on “Largest lead over/under 14.5 points?” (-110).
“Yes” on “Will there be overtime?” (8-1).
“Tie” on “First-half results/game winner” (12-1 on tie/Chiefs and 12-1 on tie/49ers).
Good luck, no matter how you play the Super Bowl.
Conference title games: 1-1 (0-1 against the spread, 1-0 on over/unders).
Playoffs: 6-4 (3-3 ATS, 3-1 on over/unders).
Season: 46-42-3 ATS, 3-1 on over/unders.
VSiN’s market report
It’s very clear that Kansas City draws strong interest at -1 or less. San Francisco shows support at +1.5 and would get even more if +2 becomes available before kickoff. Recreational bettors generally prefer favorites, which could lift the line. No key numbers are creating meaningful line value in the relative dead zone near pick’em. Super Bowls can’t end in a tie. No favorite has ever won by exactly one point. No team has ever won by exactly two points. Barring a weekend injury or illness to a key player, the market window looks tight.
Over/unders betting has settled down after strong early interest on the Over. Books that went up at 52 or 53 were flooded with Over bets. Unders didn’t show until a few sportsbooks tested 55. Sunday’s projected shootout is likely to close between 54 and 55 unless a bandwagon effect develops from recreational bettors wanting to root for points.
Value on proposition bets has typically been gobbled up already. Sharps (professional bettors) “fix mistakes” on openers with their money, as the nickname sharp comes from their tendency to sharpen the line. Be picky. Focus on your strongest opinions.
And in L.A.
An L.A. football team will be on the field next weekend when the Wildcats make their XFL debut on the road vs. the Houston Roughnecks (2 p.m. Feb. 8, Fox).
Sportsbooks’ perceptions are a bit muddled with so little information available for analysis. Caesars in Las Vegas shows the Wildcats, coached by Winston Moss, as five-point underdogs to the Roughnecks, coached by June Jones. That would suggest the Wildcats are the inferior team, unless home-field advantage in the league is expected to be worth at least six points.
But futures prices posted this week by DraftKings show Los Angeles as fourthbest in the league and Houston tied for fifth. Current moneylines: Dallas +300, Tampa Bay +400, New York +450, Los Angeles +500, D.C. +750, Houston +750, St. Louis +1000, Seattle +1100.
A $100 bet on the Wildcats at +500 to win the XFL championship would earn a $500 profit. That ratio applies to any bet, such as $10 to win $50, and $1,000 to win $5,000.
Sportsbooks are unlikely to post over /unders until oddsmakers see what pace and offensive production are going to look like among myriad rule differences from traditional football.