Chiefs have slight advantage
Super Bowl matchups favor Kansas City, Sam Farmer writes. Bill Plaschke agrees.
49ers pass offense vs. Chiefs pass defense
San Francisco might be run-based, but it’s not a one-dimensional offense. If the Chiefs zero in on stopping the run, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is capable of making them pay with the pass. Tight end George Kittle, and receivers Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders, have all had big games, and receiver Kendrick Bourne is somewhat of an X-factor. Losing rookie free safety Juan Thornhill to a torn knee ligament was painful for the Chiefs, but Tyrann Mathieu is excellent. Kansas City has found a way to hide deficiencies by playing a lot of zone, mixing up coverages, blitzing and playing from ahead.
EDGE: 49ers
49ers run offense vs. Chiefs run defense
This is the biggest mismatch in favor of the 49ers. Their running game is a three-headed monster, and a focus of Kyle Shanahan’s offense. San Francisco gets to the outside really well, and Raheem Mostert is explosive and capable of putting up gaudy numbers. The Chiefs have gotten better against the run in the second half of the season, but the only great back they faced was Tennessee’s Derrick Henry in the AFC championship game. He’s a straight-ahead, hit-you-inthe-mouth runner. The speedy 49ers present a different challenge. Defensive tackle Chris Jones, effective against the pass, could be a liability against the run.
EDGE: 49ers
Special teams
The Chiefs weren’t phenomenal on special teams this season, but have been terrific in the playoffs. Kicker Harrison Butker is consistent, and Dustin Colquitt is a Pro Bowlcaliber punter. Hardman is a scary returner. San Francisco’s Robbie Gould is coming off a poor season, statistically, but he has missed only one kick since the beginning of December, and that was on a block. Rookie punter Mitch Wishnowsky has been slightly disappointing for a fourth-round pick, and has not consistently nailed his kickoffs. Wind can fluster him a bit, and that could be a factor Sunday.
EDGE: Chiefs
Chiefs pass offense vs. 49ers pass defense
The most dramatic advantage on either side. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes is phenomenal and has a full array of receiving talent with sure-handed tight end Travis Kelce, and speedsters Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman and Sammy Watkins. The 49ers have slower corners and like to play a lot of zone, but they’re going to have to play man coverages sometimes, and that’s where the Chiefs can take advantage. The pressure is on San Francisco’s front four not just to get Mahomes off his spot, but also to sack him. Forcing him to scramble only invites problems with his ability to make off-schedule plays.
EDGE: Chiefs
Chiefs run offense vs. 49ers run defense
Kansas City doesn’t have much of a running attack. LeSean McCoy is pretty much a nonfactor, and Darwin Thompson is a rookie who hasn’t played much. The team relies mostly on Damien Williams, who is capable of busting a long run now and again, but is average between the tackles. San Francisco’s run defense clamped down on Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook, who was terrific in the first round against New Orleans. Defensive ends Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead have done a good job of crashing down and containing the runs. San Francisco is underrated against the ground game.
EDGE: 49ers
Coaching
Two excellent coaching staffs, both with the head coaches, Andy Reid of the Chiefs and Kyle Shanahan of the 49ers, plus their full complement of coordinators. Reid and Shanahan are two of the best play callers in the NFL, and the defenses have flourished under Robert Saleh (San Francisco) and Steve Spagnuolo (Kansas City). This would be a push, but for the experience on the Chiefs staff. Neither coach has won a Super Bowl, but Reid is far more seasoned.
EDGE: Chiefs