Glitch skews state virus figures
Faulty system for analyzing test results led to flawed reports on infection rates.
A breakdown in the electronic collection of coronavirus test data is hampering California’s pandemic response, with some public health officials resorting to counting results by hand and a growing number of counties warning the public that statistics provided by the state on infection rates are unreliable.
The ongoing technical problems with the electronic system for gathering and analyzing coronavirus infection rates affect the state’s ability to track the spread of the virus and could be resulting in significant undercounts of infections.
That was on vivid display Tuesday when the state’s top public health official acknowledged that Gov. Gavin Newsom had inadvertently provided f lawed information Monday that showed a steep decline — 21.2% — in the state’s seven-day average for infections.
State officials say they don’t know how long and to what extent the problems have existed in the state’s CalREDIE electronic system, which collects information from laboratories and feeds it to state and local health departments. Officials say it is unknown when the system will be running again, and didn’t provide additional details Wednesday.
The accurate collection of test result data is crucial for public health officials in guiding their pandemic response and for projecting likely transmission rates and assisting contact tracing efforts. Inaccurate data could misshape the public’s perception of the state of the pandemic, experts say.
“The information you’re
giving to the public over the last few days gives people the sense that we are doing better, and that they can relax. That might not be true,” said Dr. Bob Kocher, a former member of Newsom’s testing task force.
“We reported to the public that they went from 10,000 to 5,000 a day. If you’re looking at the data, you think we’re doing better. You might be less vigilant,” he said.
Data analysis of test results has deteriorated to the point that the state health department is retrieving the information manually. Several counties have added a note to their COVID-19 dashboards warning that the numbers may not be true indicators. And in L.A. County, where officials on Wednesday reported 68 more COVID-19-related deaths and 2,347 cases, health officials are working to contact at least 81 laboratories for test results since July 26 to determine an accurate case count.
The snafus recall problems that plagued the response in the early weeks of the pandemic.
Santa Clara County Public Health Officer Dr. Sara Cody said in a news conference Wednesday that the flawed data have officials “back to feeling blind.”
“We don’t know how the epidemic is trending,” she said.
The technical problems, say health officials, do not affect the reporting of hospitalization data, which are collected separately. But state Department of Public Health officials said in late July that such information may still be undercounted because of how the Trump administration changed the way in which hospitals must report those numbers.
On Tuesday at least 201 deaths were reported statewide, one of the highest single-day death counts. The state’s total case count is more than 528,180 and the death toll is than than 9,720. A total of 6,275 additional cases were disclosed, though that number is expected to be higher because of the glitches.
The reporting problem has gotten so acute in L.A. County that officials urge residents to call the public health department if they have tested positive, in part to help the county retrieve an accurate count of infections. The technical issue has not affected people’s ability to receive their test results, officials said.
“No one is really sure how many cases are being dropped,” L.A. County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said, stressing that the data loss affects contact tracers’ ability to identify people who have come into contact with an infected person. “It will be a futile exercise for the purpose of isolating and quarantining people.”
County officials said Wednesday that people ages 18 to 49 account for nearly 60% of new cases of the virus, with the bulk involving those between 30 and 49.
Younger residents also account for an increasing share of those hospitalized, according to the health department, with people between 30 and 49 making up 25% of those hospitalized in the county. Officials reported 1,768 hospitalizations — 31% in intensive care.
When asked at a media briefing for his take on the reporting issues, L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti said he believed the issue “probably has been with us since months ago.” He said the way labs input data “hasn’t changed in the last two weeks, so there’d be no reason to believe that some sort of change in the last two weeks accounts for the reduction” in cases, he said.
After reports of large parties that violate health orders aimed at slowing the spread of the novel coronavirus, Garcetti also said Wednesday that he will authorize the city to shut off water and power services to residents who hold such gatherings.
In Santa Clara County, one of the state’s early epicenters of the pandemic, 169 people are hospitalized with COVID-19, Cody said. That number has declined in recent weeks, but Cody cautioned against judging it as a true indicator of the virus’ total effect on the county.
“While we again can’t interpret what our last two weeks of data mean as far as the cases, the last week or two of hospitalization data is somewhat reassuring that things are leveling off,” she said. “But it is not enough to really know.”
On Monday, Newsom reported that 6,383 people were hospitalized statewide, down 8% from two weeks ago. That change in numbers occurred after back-toback record-setting days of fatalities pushed the state’s death toll past 9,000.
California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly stressed that long-term data are more crucial than snapshot statistics in analyzing trends related to COVID-19. Accuracy, however, is necessary for that analysis.
“We’re not sure when we’ll have a definitive fix to the problem,” he said.