Globe Life Field could sap power in NLDS
Home run- happy Dodgers, Padres might have to manufacture runs at spacious park.
Mookie Betts offered two observations about Globe Life Field on Monday afternoon.
“It’s a pretty big f ield,” the Dodgers’ leadoff hitter said of the pitcher- friendly host site in Arlington, Texas, for this week’s National League Division Series. “But that means there’s a lot of hits out there, so we just [ need to] build innings with hits instead of homers.”
In the regular season, the Dodgers were at their most dangerous doing the latter. They led Major League Baseball in homers with 118, scored more than half their runs via the long ball, and went 39- 10 in games in which they left the park at least once.
Home runs, however, were a rarity by comparison during the inaugural season of Globe Life Field, potentially giving the NLDS between the powerhitting Dodgers and San Diego Padres — who were also among MLB’s top four teams in homers and slugging percentage — a different dynamic. That didn’t change during Tuesday’s opener, when the Dodgers and Padres combined for a bunch of walks but few hits until the Dodgers rallied in the sixth inning.
“You can still get it out of the ballpark if you really square it up,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said, noting the team’s analytics department estimates about 10 extra feet of carry on f ly balls if the stadium’s roof remains open as expected. “But certainly, getting the ball moving forward and getting baserunners, however you do it, is most important.”
It’s fair to wonder whether the Dodgers have that club in the bag. Though they led baseball in runs, they ranked 11th in batting average, 12th in doubles and 12th in walk rate.
In the 11 games in which they failed to hit a home run, they lost seven. And though they had MLB’s best “hardhit” percentage and secondbest f ly- ball- to- grounder ratio, they ranked 22nd in linedrive rate.
In other words, they’re a team made up of f ly- ball hitters. Whether that approach — which Roberts and Betts said isn’t going to change because of the venue — will continue to work this week remains to be seen.
“I think we’ve done it at times,” Roberts said of scoring without the homer, citing his team’s ability to draw walks and produce well- timed hits in last week’s wild- card series.
“I think that if you look at a lot of the guys, whether it’s [ Justin Turner], whether it’s Mookie, whether it’s Corey [ Seager], Chris Taylor, we’ve built some innings, getting guys that can f ind some outfield grass and not just for the homer.”
The Padres don’t exactly take the slap- it- around- theinfield approach either.
However, as MLB’s second- leading team in hard- hit percentage, they recorded a .291 batting average on balls in play that ranked 15th in the majors and was 15 points higher than the Dodgers’ average. The Padres also led MLB in stolen bases.
San Diego’s pitching staff also kept the Dodgers’ offense somewhat in check in their 10 regular- season meetings ( of which the Dodgers won six) this season, limiting them to a .716 on- base- plus- slugging percentage.
It all increases the likelihood the Dodgers might have to manufacture most of their offense this week, that they might not be able to rely so heavily on home runs.