Vaccines won’t end crisis right away

Life may not be close to normal in the U. S. for several months because of COVID- 19.

Don’t even think of putting your mask away anytime soon.

Despite the expected arrival of the f irst COVID- 19 vaccines in just a few weeks, it could take several months — probably well into 2021 — before things get back to something close to normal in the U. S. and Americans can once again go to the movies, cheer at an NBA game or give Grandma a hug.

The f irst, limited shipments of the vaccine would mark just the beginning of what could be a long and messy road toward the end of the pandemic that has upended life and killed more than a quarter- million people in the U. S. In the meantime, Americans are being warned not to let their guard down.

“If you’re fighting a battle and the cavalry is on the way, you don’t stop shooting; you keep going until the cavalry gets here, and then you might even want to continue f ighting,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, said last week.

This week, AstraZeneca became the third vaccine maker to say early data indicates its shots are highly effective. Pfizer last week asked the Food and Drug Administration for emergency authorization to begin distributing its vaccine, and Moderna is expected to do the same any day. Federal officials say the f irst doses will ship within a day of authorization.

But most people will probably have to wait months for shots to become widely available. Also, the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines both require two doses, meaning people will have to go back for a second shot after three and four weeks, respectively, to get the full protection.

Dr. Moncef Slaoui, head of the U. S. vaccine development effort, said on CNN on Sunday that early data on the Pfizer and Moderna shots suggest about 70% of the population would need to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity — a milestone he said is likely to be reached in May.

But along the way, experts say the logistical challenges of the biggest vaccination campaign in U. S. history and public fear and misinformation could hinder the effort and kick the end of the pandemic further down the road.

“It’s going to be a slow process and it’s going to be a process with ups and downs, like we’ve seen already,” said Dr. Bill Moss, an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins University.

Once federal officials give a vaccine the go- ahead, doses that are already being stockpiled will be deployed with the goal of “putting needles in people’s arms” within 24 to 48 hours, said Paul Mango, a Department of Health and Human Services official involved in the Operation Warp Speed effort to develop COVID- 19 vaccines.

Those f irst shipments are expected to be limited and will be directed to highrisk groups at designated locations, such as front- line healthcare workers at hospitals.

Federal and state officials are still figuring out exactly how to prioritize those most at risk, including the elderly, prison inmates and homeless people. By the end of January, Health and Human Services officials say, all senior citizens should be able to get shots, assuming a vaccine is available by the end of 2020.

For everyone else, they expect widespread availability would start a couple of months later.

To make shots easily accessible, state and federal off icials are enlisting a vast network of providers.

But some worry long lines won’t be the problem.

“One of the things that may be a factor that hasn’t been discussed that much is: How many will be willing to be vaccinated?” said Christine Finley, director of Vermont’s immunization program. She noted that the accelerated development of the vaccine and the politics around it have fueled worries about safety.

Vaccines aren’t always effective: Over the last decade, for example, seasonal f lu vaccines have been effective in from 20% to 60% of people who get them.

AstraZeneca, Pfizer and Moderna say early trial data suggest their vaccine candidates are about 90% or more effective. But those rates could change by the time the studies end.