Ins and outs of Newsom recall effort
Every California governor in modern history has faced recall attempts to oust them from office. All but one have failed, but there is an active effort aimed at Gov. Gavin Newsom that appears to be gaining momentum amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
Here’s what California voters should know about the rules, the next steps and the personalities involved.
What is a recall?
Under California law since 1911, voters can seek to oust an elected official through the ballot box by invoking a recall. But it’s not easy, particularly if there isn’t major financial backing to pay for signature gatherers.
California is one of 20
states to allow for a gubernatorial recall. In 19, including California, a successful recall effort is sent to the ballot. In Virginia, the matter heads to the courts.
The threshold in the Golden State for making it onto the ballot: 12% of registered voters in the last gubernatorial election from at least five counties must sign petitions backing the effort.
In Newsom’s case, that means his opponents must submit 1,495,709 valid signatures. As many as 2 million signatures are needed to account for those that are duplicates or invalidated.
Proponents are typically allowed 160 days to gather the necessary signatures, but the courts gave Newsom’s recall supporters four additional months because of the pandemic.
What’s the history of recalls in the United States?
Many recall attempts have been launched against governors across the United States, but only three have made the ballot — a successful recall of North Dakota Gov. Lynn J. Frazier in 1921, a successful recall of California Gov. Gray Davis in 2003 and an unsuccessful effort to oust Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in 2012.
Who is behind the Newsom recall?
The early roots of the recall included supporters of former President Trump, some with ties to fringe groups. But as the movement grew, it has been adopted by mainstream California Republicans, including some of the strategists who worked on the 2003 recall of Davis.
Who is funding the recall?
The three groups promoting the recall have raised more than $2.5 million. Major donors include John Kruger, an Orange County entrepreneur and education reform advocate, Beverly Hills developer Geoffrey Palmer and Silicon Valley billionaire Douglas Leone. The recall has also received a large contribution from Silicon Valley venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya, who in the past has donated to Democratic politicians and causes.
The Republican National Committee earmarked $250,000 to fund outreach to Republican households in California, including links to sign recall petitions, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee chipped in $100,000 from his political action committee.
What’s behind the recall?
The recall proponents’ petition called for Newsom’s ouster because of the state’s high taxes, homeless crisis and the governor’s position on issues such as immigration and the death penalty. But their reasons have adapted as the pandemic has continued. Now, much of the argument is over the closure of small businesses and schools, as well as the vaccine rollout. They have also seized on the billions of dollars of fraudulent payments made by the state’s unemployment office.
How does the Newsom recall compare with Davis’ ouster?
Like Newsom, Davis governed during a period of intense voter frustration. In 2003, increased car registration fees and rolling power blackouts upset the electorate.
However, there are key differences between the two Democrats, and the state’s politics then and now. Davis narrowly won reelection with 47% of the vote, and Newsom received 62% to become governor. California voters are also much more liberal than they were 18 years ago. And so far, no wealthy celebrity with skyhigh name recognition and broad appeal — Arnold Schwarzenegger replaced Davis — has emerged to challenge Newsom.
Is the recall going to make the ballot?
We don’t know yet. But it’s looking increasingly likely. The secretary of state’s office reported on Friday that nearly 1.1 million signatures had been submitted to county election offices, and of the 798,310 that had been vetted, more than 668,000 were deemed valid. These numbers reflect a high validity rate that signals that proponents are poised to hit the threshold to qualify, triggering a special election this year. The next update from state election officials could come weeks after the March 17 deadline for signature submission.
If the recall qualifies, when and what will voters see on the ballot?
The timing of a special election is uncertain and depends, in part, on when the recall supporters submit enough valid signatures. A vote could take place anywhere from August to December, political observers say, and could cost $80 million to $100 million. Voters will be asked two questions: Do they want to recall Newsom, and if Newsom is recalled, which candidate would they want to replace him.
Is Newsom in jeopardy?
Recent polling shows that the governor’s approval rating has plummeted to 46%, an 18-point drop in four months, and about a third of those surveyed said they support the recall.
What are the responses to the recall effort?
Newsom has characterized the effort as a costly waste of money that was fueled by extremists. “A handful of partisan activists supporting President Trump and his dangerous agenda to divide America are trying to overturn the definitive will of California voters and bring Washington’s broken government to California with this recall effort. The last thing California needs is another wasteful special election, supported by those who demonize California’s people and attack California’s values,” he wrote to the secretary of state’s office in his official response.
Newsom hasn’t publicly addressed the recall, and when asked by reporters about it, he has demurred. “I’m focused on the vaccine issue,” he said during a recent news conference on the pandemic.
Who’s running to replace Newsom?
Former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and businessman John Cox, who lost the gubernatorial election to Newson in 2018, have announced plans to challenge Newsom. Conservative activist Mike Cernovich has said he is running but has no expectation of winning.
More are certain to emerge. In the 2003 recall, more than 130 candidates ran to replace Davis.