Who really has the voters’ ears
WHEN THE 64th Grammy Awards return to Staples Center — sorry, Crypto.com Arena — on Jan. 31, the ceremony won’t just have a bigger audience than it did this year outside the Los Angeles Convention Center. It’ll also have more nominees: For the first time, the Recording Academy handed out 10 nominations, up from eight in recent years, in each of the Grammys’ four key categories. Here’s an early look at the big prizes and some of the more interesting awards as final-round voting gets underway.
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Jon Batiste
“We Are”
Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga “Love for Sale”
Justin Bieber
“Justice (Triple Chucks Deluxe)”
Doja Cat “Planet Her (Deluxe)”
Billie Eilish “Happier Than Ever”
H.E.R.
“Back of My Mind”
Lil Nas X
“Montero”
Olivia Rodrigo “Sour”
Taylor Swift “Evermore”
Kanye West
“Donda”
Analysis: The academy has gradually transformed the Grammys’ reputation as a place where no nominated veteran is likely to go home empty-handed. (The last person over the age of 45 to win the flagship album of the year award was Robert Plant in 2009.) But without a clear front-runner among the category’s millennials and Zoomers, voters may find themselves unable to resist honoring 95-yearold Bennett, who recently revealed he has Alzheimer’s disease, with a prize for his and Lady Gaga’s crisply rendered set of classic Cole Porter tunes. Front-runner: Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga Wild card: Jon Batiste, whose “We Are” is as musically dexterous as it is socially optimistic.
RECORD OF THE YEAR
ABBA
“I Still Have Faith in You”
Jon Batiste “Freedom”
Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga “I Get a Kick Out of You”
Justin Bieber featuring Daniel Caesar and Giveon “Peaches”
Brandi Carlile “Right on Time”
Doja Cat featuring SZA “Kiss Me More”
Billie Eilish “Happier Than Ever”
Lil Nas X
“Montero (Call Me By Your Name)”
Olivia Rodrigo
“Drivers License”
Silk Sonic
“Leave the Door Open”
Analysis: Record of the year, which recognizes performers and producers, tends to be less susceptible than the album award to the Grammys’ quirk factor. (Bad news for the reunited ABBA.) Yet Bieber, Doja Cat and Lil Nas X are likely to split voters at the intersection of pop, hip-hop and R&B; ditto Eilish and Rodrigo for those into moody breakup songs. That leaves Bruno Mars and Anderson .Paak’s “Leave the Door Open” — a flawlessly executed retro-soul jam released under the name Silk Sonic — as the inoffensive favorite. Front-runner: Silk Sonic Wild card: Billie Eilish — a win would make her the first artist in Grammys history to take record of the year three times in a row.
SONG OF THE YEAR
“Bad Habits,” written by Fred Gibson, Johnny McDaid and Ed Sheeran (performed by Ed Sheeran)
“A Beautiful Noise,”
written by Ruby Amanfu,
Brandi Carlile, Brandy Clark, Alicia Keys, Hillary Lindsey, Lori McKenna, Linda Perry and Hailey Whitters (performed by Alicia Keys and Brandi Carlile)
“Drivers License,”
written by Daniel Nigro and Olivia Rodrigo (performed by Olivia Rodrigo)
“Fight for You,” written by Dernst Emile II, H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas (performed by H.E.R.)
“Happier Than Ever,” written by Billie Eilish O’Connell and Finneas O’Connell (performed by Billie Eilish)
“Kiss Me More,”
written by Rogét Chahayed, Amala Zandile Dlamini, Lukasz Gottwald, Carter Lang, Gerard A. Powell II, Solána Rowe and David Sprecher (performed by Doja Cat featuring SZA)
“Leave the Door Open,” written by Brandon Anderson, Christopher Brody Brown, Dernst Emile II and Bruno Mars (performed by Silk Sonic)
“Montero (Call Me By Your Name),”
written by Denzel Baptiste, David Biral, Omer Fedi, Montero Hill and Roy Lenzo (performed by Lil Nas X)
“Peaches,”
written by Louis Bell, Justin Bieber, Giveon Dezmann Evans, Bernard Harvey, Felisha “Fury” King, Matthew Sean Leon, Luis Manuel Martinez Jr., Aaron Simmonds, Ashton Simmonds, Andrew Wotman and Keavan Yazdani (performed by Justin Bieber featuring Daniel Caesar and Giveon)
“Right on Time,” written by Brandi Carlile, Dave Cobb, Phil Hanseroth and Tim Hanseroth (performed by Brandi Carlile)
(Cont. on S30)
(Cont. from 28) Analysis: Carlile is the first person with dueling nods for this songwriting prize since Elton John and Tim Rice received a pair for their tunes from “The Lion King” in 1995. And speaking of movie songs: H.E.R.’s “Fight for You” (which was featured in “Judas and the Black Messiah”) won an Oscar in April. Still, Grammy voters love a dramatic piano ballad in song of the year — think Sam Smith’s “Stay with Me” or Adele’s “Hello” — so look for Rodrigo’s smash “Drivers License” to take this category. Front-runner: “Drivers License” Wild card: “Montero (Call Me By Your Name),” a proudly queer love song that could rally support from academy members eager to send a message of inclusion.
NEW ARTIST
Arooj Aftab Jimmie Allen
Baby Keem Finneas Glass Animals Japanese Breakfast The Kid Laroi Arlo Parks Olivia Rodrigo Saweetie
Analysis: No other freshman came close to matching the impact 18-year-old Rodrigo made in 2021, which would suggest the former Disney Channel star is a lock — at least until you remember how many earlier sure things have lost this perennially screwy category, from Drake to Taylor Swift back to the Eagles and Elton John. Rodrigo’s biggest threat? Probably Finneas, a proven academy fave (thanks to his production and songwriting work with his sister, Billie Eilish) who released his debut solo album this year. Front-runner: Olivia Rodrigo Wild card: Arlo Parks, a smart British singersongwriter who sets poetic lyrics over gently funky beats.
RAP ALBUM
J. Cole
“The Off-Season”
Nas “King’s Disease II”
Tyler, the Creator “Call Me If You Get Lost”
Kanye West “Donda”
Analysis: Here’s a category with fewer nominees than usual, thanks to Drake’s late-breaking request to withdraw a nomination he received for his “Certified Lover Boy.” (The rapper didn’t immediately specify why, though he’s complained for years about the academy’s treatment of hiphop.) Drake’s dropout probably gives his longtime frenemy West the biggest boost; Tyler’s tender yet rowdy “Call Me If You Get Lost” could benefit as well.
Front-runner: Kanye Wild card: Nas, in the mix with the sequel to his Grammy-winning “King’s Disease.”
R&B ALBUM
Snoh Aalegra
“Temporary Highs in the Violet Skies”
Jon Batiste “We Are”
Leon Bridges
“Gold-Diggers Sound”
H.E.R.
“Back of My Mind”
Jazmine Sullivan
“Heaux Tales”
Analysis: After a few years out of the spotlight, Sullivan came back in a big way right at the top of 2021, earning rave reviews with the deeply felt “Heaux Tales,” then going on to sing the national anthem (as a duet with the country star Eric Church) at Super Bowl LV. Yet Sullivan faces a challenge at the Grammys from H.E.R., who won this award in 2019 — and who performed “America the Beautiful” at that same football game. Front-runner: Jazmine Sullivan Wild card: Texas-based Leon Bridges, who moved into an East Hollywood studio-slash-hotel to record the sultry “GoldDiggers Sound.”
COUNTRY ALBUM
Brothers Osborne “Skeletons”
Mickey Guyton “Remember Her Name”
Miranda Lambert, Jon Randall and Jack Ingram “The Marfa Tapes”
Sturgill Simpson “The Ballad of Dood & Juanita”
Chris Stapleton “Starting Over”
Analysis: The real story
ARLO PARKS, from left, is a wild card for new artist; Kanye West, the fave for rap album; Jazmine Sullivan, the top pick for R&B album; and Chris Stapleton, the man to beat for country album. is who wasn’t nominated: Kacey Musgraves, whose “Star-Crossed” was deemed too pop by the academy’s country screening committee, and Morgan Wallen, whose blockbuster “Dangerous” got the cold shoulder after he was caught on tape using the N-word. If Nashville voters are hunting for a safe choice, Stapleton’s bear hug of an album fits the bill. Front-runner: Chris Stapleton Wild card: Mickey Guyton, who became the first Black female country artist to perform at the Grammys when she sang “Black Like Me” during this year’s ceremony.