Staley’s blown calls cost them the playoffs
The Chargers went to overtime in the last game of the season with a chance to qualify for postseason play in their first year under coach Brandon Staley. However, after a promising start to the season, the Chargers fell just short. Mediated by Times NFL editor Athan Atsales, Chargers beat writer Jeff Miller, Times NFL writer Sam Farmer, Rams beat writer Gary Klein, columnist Bill Plaschke and writer Mike DiGiovanna discuss what went wrong.
There were monumental moments through the ChargersRaiders game. Yes, Staley’s philosophy all season has been to take chances, but what were you thinking when the Chargers went for it on fourth down from their 18?
Plaschke: I thought Brandon Staley had lost his mind. Then I remembered how he’s taken unnecessary risks before, failing three times on fourth down in a critical loss to Kansas City. Then I thought, wait a minute, this is a much bigger gamble, the biggest gamble of the season, going for it on fourth down FROM YOUR OWN 18-YARD-LINE!!!! Then I concluded, yeah, Brandon Staley had lost his mind.
DiGiovanna: I also was thinking, “What are they thinking???” Like Bill, I was not a fan of the Chargers passing up three makeable field goals to go for it on fourth down in a 34-28 overtime loss to Kansas City in Week 15, and I did not like Sunday night’s decision, either. I understand the analytics favor going for it on fourth down, but there is a time and a place. With so many one-score games in the NFL, how can you forego so many sure points, like the Chargers did against the Chiefs, and give up an easy three points like they did with that fourth-down decision against the Raiders?
Farmer: Not only that, but you’re not putting that situation in Justin Herbert’s hands? I didn’t get that at all. Yes, there’s upside to converting, but it’s vastly outweighed by the downside of failing to convert. It was an unsuccessful slap in the face of the Raiders, and it was like jet fuel to that crowd. To me, this was the dangling sweater thread that started the secondhalf unraveling.
Miller: Staley will tell you his philosophy is not to take chances; it’s to seize what he likes to call advantage looks. At least one analytics site strongly recommended going for it on that play Sunday night. Staley often said during the season that he never felt like his decisions were gambles or examples of him being reckless. This case, to me, did feel like a gamble, even by Las Vegas’ gaudy standards.
I don’t think enough was made of that pass interference call before the half. To me, the ball landed almost 30 yards away from the receiver, meaning the pass was uncatchable. Plus, the receiver flopped to the ground. What’s your opinion?
Miller: The Chargers were on the short end of the play. But veteran cornerback Chris Harris Jr. put himself in a bad position. Derek Carr heaving the ball toward the goal line was pure savvy vet.
Farmer: That was almost comical considering how far away the ball landed and the dramatic soccer flop. There was contact by the defender, but defensive holding, five yards and an automatic first down, would be a much more reasonable call with an uncatchable ball. And that came right after the successful draw by the Raiders on third and 23. What a 1-2 gut punch.
Plaschke: Yes, when the Chargers defense was gashed for a long third-down run by Jalen Richard, I thought that was the biggest play on that drive. I was still vexed over that play when I saw the pass interference, which was a horrible call, but the defense should have been off the field by then. So I thought, bad call, but bad defense.
Before the deciding field goal, the Chargers called timeout before third down. Then the Raiders gashed the Chargers defense for a first down to put them in fieldgoal range? What’s your opinion on Staley’s explanation?
Plaschke: From my press box vantage point, judging body language and intensity and all that, the Raiders were laying down and waiting for the tie. So the timeout, no matter why it was called, gave the Raiders a little jolt and eventually cost the Chargers the playoffs.
Klein: Did anyone really think the Raiders were going to let time run out so they could both go to the playoffs? C’mon. Staley’s explanation about getting the right defensive grouping on the field made sense. Of course, the second part would be executing that defense successfully and stopping the run. That didn’t happen.
Miller: Gary nailed this one. The Chargers were in their nickel defense and they suspected, correctly, that the Raiders were going to run for a third straight play. So Staley switched personnel groupings, inserting another defensive lineman. The real problem was that their run defense, an issue throughout the season, again failed them, this time with their season riding on it.
Yes, Justin Herbert is a stud but so are his receivers and Mike Williams is a free agent. How important is it for the Chargers to keep him alongside Keenan Allen? And can they afford it, salary-cap wise?
Klein: If I’m reading the chart right at overthecap.com, the Chargers have plenty of cap space. And Williams is a playmaker. I would not break up that tandem.
Miller: The Chargers already committed to Allen with a massive, long-term extension. Even with all that cap space, signing Williams to a big-time deal too would mean tying up a lot of money in one position. Williams could get franchise tagged, which would cost the Chargers about $18.5 million next season, according to Spotrac.
Plaschke: To me, Williams too often disappears. They can better spend the money elsewhere.
Farmer: Not sure about that. The Chargers have invested a lot of time and effort into Williams, transforming him from a guy who could rip down 50/50 balls into a well-rounded receiver and such an important part of Herbert’s arsenal. The Chargers have $72 million in cap space, second most in the league. Why shouldn’t they be able to keep him?
What are the big holes the Chargers need to fill?
Plaschke: They need to find somebody to protect Herbert. They need to find a whole bunch of them.
DiGiovanna: I will defer to Jeff Miller on the particulars, but defense needs to be a priority too. The Chargers seem similar to the Rams in that they have several stars on defense — safety Derwin James and edge rusher Joey Bosa are among the league’s best at their positions — but they underperformed as a unit. The Chargers need to get more physical up front and tackle better at the second level. They ranked 30th against the run, yielding an average of 138.9 yards per game!
Miller: This team needs a right tackle. Like yesterday. Bryan Bulaga almost certainly won’t be back following two injury-filled seasons and his replacement, Storm Norton, struggled against the Raiders. Defensive tackle, right guard, tight end and cornerback are other areas of concern. The free-agent decisions include Williams, linebacker Kyzir White, edge rusher Uchenna Nwosu and defensive tackle Justin Jones.