A red state in a 50/50 nation
If you cannot imagine why half the country voted differently than you did this presidential election, get used to it. They will probably vote that way again.
As my brother texted me the day after the election, “We are a 50/50 nation. That’s what we are.”
Actually, we’re slightly more Democratic than Republican numerically, but that’s not how we elect people.
President-elect Biden had 6 million more votes than Trump, or more than 80 million versus almost 74 million. Biden had more votes than any candidate in American history. Trump had the second most ever.
Democrats are actually on a roll when it comes to the popular vote. Starting in 1992, they’ve won more votes than Republicans in every presidential election except in 2004, when President George W. Bush narrowly defeated Sen. John Kerry.
But we elect presidents not by the popular vote but by the Electoral College, where Biden’s presumed lead is 306-232. Most of that 6 million vote difference can be explained by California, where Biden won by 5.1 million votes and had almost twice as many as Trump. Californians are Americans, too, but in the Electoral College, winning that state by 5.1 million votes is the same as winning by one.
In fact, a shift of less than 115,000 votes in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin would have given Trump the victory, even though Biden still would have had about six million more votes.
Trump also could have been re-elected if he had won Georgia and Pennsylvania while 22,092 voters in Nebraska’s 2nd District had voted for him instead of Biden. In Nebraska along with Maine, Electoral College votes are awarded by congressional district, with the state’s popular vote winner receiving two additional votes.
If that had happened, the Electoral College would have been tied, 269-269, which would have thrown the election into the incoming House of Representatives in January. There, each state’s congressional delegation would have one vote, and Republicans will control 26 states.
That’s all assuming some electors don’t vote for whomever they want, which they can do without penalty in 17 states, including Arkansas.
Congress is also closely divided. The split in the incoming Senate is currently 50-48 with two races to be decided in Georgia runoffs. If Democrats win both, Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would break the tie in favor of the Democrats. In the House, Democrats hold a 222-206 majority with seven races undecided. According to the latest numbers I could find by the New York Times, Democrats won 50.5% of all votes in all U.S. House races combined, while Republicans won 48.1%. That’s not quite 50/50, but it’s close.
None of this is true in Arkansas. In this red state, Trump won 62% while Republicans easily won the Senate race and the three House races where the incumbent had opposition. Republicans now control all the congressional and statewide offices and enjoy more than threefourths supermajorities in both the state House and the state Senate.
Those numbers are unlikely to change much. In the University of Arkansas’ annual Arkansas Poll released in October, 40% of respondents thought of themselves as Republicans while only 21% considered themselves to be Democrats. In 1999, it was 23% Republican and 35% Democrat.
Another 33% said they were independents, but 45% of those said they were closer to Republicans while 32% said they were closer to Democrats. Only 19% of independents said they were “just independent.” That’s a small minority of a minority.
If you’re a Republican in Arkansas, you might wonder what’s wrong with half the country. If you’re a Democrat here, you might wonder what’s wrong with half the country and most of the state.
You might as well keep wondering. In the ways we keep score, this is a very red state in a 50/50 nation.
I guess we all have three ways to respond: Get mad at half the country, try to respect and learn from other people’s perspectives, or just think less often about politics.
Probably some combination of the latter two is best.