Boozman’s primary goal: Avoid the runoff

The biggest question in Arkansas politics during this May primary season is whether its quiet senator will avoid a runoff against one of his more outspoken opponents. Looking at the latest poll numbers, it seems likely – not certain, but likely – he will.

The quiet senator would be Sen. John Boozman, one of the least likely members of that body to appear on national television or go viral online.

In a poll by Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College released Wednesday, Boozman was polling at 45% support among 802 likely Republican primary voters. Jake Bequette was second at 19%, while Jan Morgan was third at 16.5%. Heath Loftis was third at 1.5%.

That 45% is the number to watch, along with one other: 18%, which is the percentage of undecided voters.

The conventional wisdom is that an incumbent polling at under 50% is in trouble. But the conventional wisdom has often been wrong, especially lately. If the poll is accurate, Boozman needs to hold onto his 45% and gain the support of less than 28% of the undecideds. In a lineup of three of them, he has to get one to say, “I guess he’s done all right.”

Then he would advance to the general election, where he’d hardly have to campaign.

Bequette has been on the airwaves after raising $1.1 million on his own, according to the Federal Election Commission, while benefiting from a $1 million donation from wealthy donor Richard Uihlein to a Bequette-supporting political action committee.

That’s enough money to run ads making the case that Bequette is the real Trump-supporting conservative, while Boozman is the too-quiet “RINO,” or “Republican In Name Only” unwilling to stand up to President Biden.

Bequette also has been pushing a secretly recorded video, first published on the Gateway Pundit website, where Boozman can be seen saying the 2020 presidential election results had been certified and investigated, and that it was time to move on.

Politico – which broke the story about the Supreme Court’s draft abortion ruling – recently reported that

Boozman immediately called former President Trump to patch things over. Trump has endorsed Boozman but was not happy about the remarks, Politico reported.

Meanwhile, Boozman has been running ads touting his Trump endorsement and his support of Trump’s presidency. Sen. Tom Cotton recorded an ad praising Boozman as well.

Morgan hasn’t raised as much money as Bequette ($554,101.46 at last count, according to the FEC). But she was already well known as an outspoken media personality who collected 30% of the vote in 2018 running against Gov. Asa Hutchinson. She has a following.

Bequette and Morgan make the same arguments and appeal to the same voters. You can combine their numbers for a clearer picture of the race: 45% for Boozman, and 35.5% for Bequette/morgan.

Boozman wants to avoid a runoff. Runoffs are unpredictable. Turnout would be low. The last statewide Republican runoff occurred in 2014, when Leslie Rutledge defeated David Sterling to become attorney general. In the runoff, 74,541 people voted, three weeks after 168,066 had voted in the primary.

Theoretically, runoff voters would tend to be more ideological, passionate and ready for a change. The Bequette-morgan voters would be more enthusiastic about voting so they could stick it to Biden than the Boozman voters would be about supporting him. Boozman would still be the favorite, but he’d sweat a lot more.

There are a couple of historical parallels here, only one of which Boozman wants to repeat.

If Republicans take over the Senate, Boozman is in line to chair the Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee. That would be good for Arkansas, and in another era a senator might point that out in an ad. Not these days.

When Boozman was elected to the Senate in 2010, he defeated Sen. Blanche Lincoln, the Democrat who was chair of that committee. He doesn’t want that to happen again.

The parallel Boozman wants to repeat is what happened in the primary that year, when he won 53% of the vote in an eight-candidate field and advanced to the general election without a runoff.

If this most recent poll is accurate, he needs one in three of the undecideds to make that happen again.

Odds are he’ll get it. Some of Boozman’s supporters are pretty quiet, too.