Arkansas Democrats hope this election is ‘inflection point’

Could this be the election where Arkansas Democrats reverse a decade-and-a-half slide that has left them at times nearly powerless in deciding which laws get passed?

The party’s strategy director, Will Watson, thinks so.

Watson and other Democrats are encouraged by a new poll the party commissioned that described at least 17 competitive “battleground” state legislative districts. Republicans represent 14 while Democrats represent three.

Clary Campaign Labs, a Democratic Party-aligned firm out of Washington, D.C., polled 971 voters statewide Feb. 8-12. The party revealed parts but not all of the poll during a press conference March 6, and then I interviewed Watson March 19.

Watson said the poll found that support statewide broke down along unsurprising lines. In a state where Republicans control more than 80% of the Legislature, poll respondents preferred a generic Republican state legislative candidate to a generic Democrat, 60%-34%. That’s close to Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders’ winning margin in the last election.

Watson said the numbers were closer in large battleground counties. Those are Benton and Washington in northwest Arkansas; Pulaski, Faulkner and Saline in central Arkansas; and Crittenden (West Memphis) and a few others in the Delta.

Overall, the difference between the parties in those counties combined was 49%44%. I live in Saline County and can tell you it’s nowhere near that close here.

Where the poll gets most interesting is in those 17 battleground state legislative districts. In those, Watson said the poll found Democrats are leading Republicans, 47%45%.

Watson did not reveal what those districts were specifically but did offer a generalized description.

“The closest races from 2022 are certainly races that we think will continue to be close in 2024, so you’re talking about House districts in Springdale, places that we think are going to be even more competitive with Trump as the nominee in Benton County, including Rogers and Bentonville and Bella Vista,” he said. “And then you have a swath of Pulaski and Faulkner County seats that Democrats have been getting 46-47% in for the better part of the last decade.”

Pollsters also asked voters a series of questions about issues where Democrats think Republicans might be vulnerable with some voters. Those include Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders’ LEARNS Act that changed the state’s education system; the state’s near total abortion ban; efforts by the governor and legislators to change the state’s Freedom of Information Act; and changes to state laws that removed legal protections for librarians and changed how history is taught in schools.

Watson said support for Democrats ticked up a little after those questions were asked.

This poll should be taken with some degree of skepticism, as perhaps all polls should be. Polls are an imperfect snapshot of a particular moment in time. Furthermore, a political party commissioned this one and is not releasing all the details.

It does provide an idea about where Democrats are basing their hopes, with some justification, and what issues they will emphasize.

For a century and a half, Democrats were Arkansas’ dominant party. That started changing in 2010. Now Democrats hold no congressional offices or statewide seats. They occupy only six seats in the 35-member state Senate and 18 in the 100-member House of Representatives.

Success for Democrats this year would be reaching what Watson called an “inflection point” and starting to win some seats back. The best chance is in the state House, where Democrats are contesting 64 seats.

Democrats’ bigger goal is to break the Republicans’ supermajority in both chambers. They would need nine seats in the Senate or 26 in the House to reach a one-fourthplus-one minority. If they did that, and remained united, Republicans would have to work with them in order to pass appropriations bills. Those require a three-fourths majority.

If that were to happen, Watson said, it would “return some balance to the Legislature and see more moderated policies come out of this Legislature, and some measure of accountability for what we view as a more extremist form of government.”

However one describes it, having a more relevant Democratic Party would change how the Legislature operates and what laws it passes.

What’s yet to be seen is how many voters believe things are imbalanced and need moderating, and how many want more Democrats to help do it.

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