First wildfire near Mammoth now out
Heatwave arrives next week; fire danger will grow again
The first local wildfire of any substantial size in the Mammoth area is now out after fire crews were able to respond quickly enough to keep the fire to a final one-quarter-acre size, but the threat of wildfire is set to escalate fast starting next week when a summer heat wave is forecast to take aim at the state and the Eastern Sierra.
The lightning strike fire, located on a knoll above the Shady Rest Park was first identified in the afternoon of Saturday, June 25 by local firefighters who were stationed at a local fire lookout.
“Under the watchful eyes and quick response of our firefighters, a lightning strike fire was prevented from spreading into Mammoth Lakes this past Saturday afternoon,” the U.S. Forest Service Inyo National Forest said. “The strike was witnessed by one of our Inyo National Forest Fire Prevention Technicians scanning the landscape atop a fire lookout station as a storm cell moved though. At the same time, one of our Inyo National Forest Battalion Chiefs spotted it too, calling in the report of smoke and a full suppression response.
“Lightning strikes are a natural part of this forest’s fire regime (but) due to this strike’s location, the time of year, low fuel moisture and potential for a rapid rate of spread, a swift response was necessary,” the Inyo said. “This action kept the fire to one-quarter acre behind Shady Rest Park. “We would also like to thank Mammoth Lakes Fire Department for assisting us in this fire for the community we protect together, “they said. “Additionally, we would like to thank the helicopter crew out of Beaverhead-deerlodge National Forest, which was pre-positioned at the Mammoth Airport.”
While the fire is now out, this is likely not the last local fire.
A relatively cool spring and early summer is going to fast give way to a much warmer weather starting after the July 4 holiday, according to Howard Sheckter, Mammoth’s forecaster, although right before that, there will be a cooldown.
“A cooling trend begins Wednesday as a couple of short waves affect Mammoth,” he said. “After a very windy Wednesday, expect less wind Thursday as temperatures continue to slowly lower to the mid 70s,” he said. “Lows at night will be in the 30s and 40s,” he said. “Although it is a dry pattern, it will be associated with plenty of wind, with more details to be determined later this week. This trof will trigger some 10-plusdegrees of cooling by July 4th, meaning the highs in Mammoth on July 4th are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s.” By Tuesday, he said, lows will dip into the 30s.
However, that is likely the end of the cool weather for a while.
“The longer-range outlook has what looks to be a major heat wave for California by the weekend following
July 4th,” he said. “The American model shows a pattern that will import a ton of monsoon moisture for a very humid heat wave for Southern California and thus, a higher possibility of thunderstorms for the high country later next week. The European models show a dryer and hotter pattern than the American models; we are talking the upper 80s to near 90 degrees in Mammoth, should the European model work out. This heat event begins about July 7 and
goes through about July 14,” he said. “Incidentally, this is the climatological hottest period of the year with the 10th of July being Bishop’s hottest day on record, with a temperature of 110 degrees, set back in 2002.”
Earlier forecasts for a stronger than normal summer monsoon season for the Central and Southern Sierra are now looking drier than they did last month, he said.
“The last few months, the European model was showing wetter than normal for the Central Sierra, then they backed off of it in June, so it’s less clear now what to expect,” he said.
This monsoon moisture (it comes from the Desert Southwest) can be both a boon and a danger to the Eastern Sierra. Due to the region’s high-elevation, steep terrain, which triggers more rain and lightning than areas of lower elevation, most lightning storms tend to come with enough heavy rain to keep lightning strike fires limited in size.
Longer term, Sheckter said there is some bad news for the coming winter; the existing La Nina pattern, which gave the state several dry winters in a row, is now expected to remain in place for a completely unprecedented fourth year, meaning the recent dry winter pattern is likely to persist at least into the first half of the winter.
“The models are showing La Nina showing up again for this fall and that is the bad news,” he said. “There is no precedent for a fourth year La Nina, EVER.”
What that means for the winter is the same storm-blocking pattern of the past three winters. However, he said, statistically speaking, the pattern is very likely to break down after December and once it does, he expects the weather for the state to go from ‘drought to flood.’
“However, once this thing flips back to El Nino, I am really concerned,” he said. “The ocean has been storing all that heat for four years and it has to release it; we are going from drought to flooding once it comes.”