Precautions
seen on record. And we’re seeing the warmest conditions actually in the central equatorial Pacific as opposed to off the coast of South America,” Johnson said. “What does that mean? Well, I wish I could tell you but we actually don’t have any analogues to this. That’s the sad thing going into this. We know that every El Niño we have is going to be slightly different. So we’re leaning on what are the closest years we can go off of,” she said.
The term El Niño refers to the large scale ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon linked to a periodic warming in sea-surface temperatures across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. The El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle is made up of both El Niño and La Niña and are periodic departures from expected sea surface temperatures near the equator in the Pacific Ocean. These warmer or cooler than normal ocean temperatures can affect weather patterns around the world by influencing high and low pressure systems, wind, and precipitation. El Niños occur irregularly, approximately every two to seven years. El Niño years typically bring above-average precipitation to the Eastern Sierra, but Johnson says that past data can be misleading.
In order to get an accurate picture of what climate conditions may look like for this winter season, NWS meteorologists compared data from previous years with strong to moderate El Niño patterns.
“The take away from this is we tend to get near-normal or above-normal snowfall during moderate to strong El Niño events,” Johnson said. “But correlation does not equal causation in this case,” she said.
Last year, snowmelt was held back by the prolonged cool temperatures late in the 2022-23 winter season, and flooding could have been a lot worse, Johnson said. The NWS is not particularly concerned about runoff, but soils still saturated with the above-average precipitation from last season could contribute to flooding in the spring.
How to Prepare: At the beginning of November, Mono County Office of Emergency Management Director Chris Mokracek provided a “Winter 2023 Response and Winter 2024 Preparedness” presentation before the Mono County Board of Supervisors that outlined areas for emergency response improvement based on feedback received from a recent community survey, and highlighted the importance of adequate and thorough planning in advance of this winter storm season. Mokracek encouraged all Mono County residents and visitors to take the time to prepare for the upcoming winter season by visiting Ready.mono.ca.gov.
“READY Mono is designed to provide residents and visitors with emergency readiness, response, and recovery resources, and share real-time information and critical updates before, during, and after an emergency or natural disaster,” Mokracek said. “The first step in becoming prepared for an emergency is visiting our portal and signing up for emergency alerts. The second step is to make a plan and ensure that you are as self-sufficient as possible should an emergency arise,” he said.
Based on the feedback received from the 2023 Storm Response Survey, Mono County would like to remind the public of the following:
equipment in advance of the winter storm season.
instructions. Be prepared to shelter-in-place, and be sure to evacuate or leave when the opportunity presents itself.
who have special needs that qualify them for early access to incident notification or evacuation. Residents are
Five Steps for Winter Preparedness:
1. Get Alerts: Mono County utilizes a cloud-based, public alerting and residential safety tool that allows government agencies to send geo-targeted urgent alerts to subscribers. Residents and visitors are urged to sign up for alerts at Ready.mono.ca.gov. Current subscribers are encouraged to update their profile annually.
2. Make a Plan: Extreme weather events and other natural disasters occur at a moment’s notice. Mono County urges residents and visitors to “Make a Plan” in advance of potential emergency situations. This plan
streets, road closures, etc. Ask yourself the following questions: How will I receive emergency alerts and warnings? What is my shelter plan? What is my evacuation route? What is my household communication plan? Do I need to update my emergency preparedness kit?