Conflict could suck in bigger powers
MOSCOW>> A long-simmering territorial dispute in the Caucasus region that reignited in recent days, with tanks, artillery helicopters and infantry engaged in combat, suggests that the two sides Azerbaijan and Armenia are girding for an extended conflict rather than the border skirmishes that they have engaged in over the years.
And what would seem to be a local war over a mountainous land of little strategic value is taking on greater importance because of its potential to draw in bigger powers like Russia and Turkey.
The fighting over the territory, known as the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, escalated Monday after breaking out over the weekend, with reports on both sides of rising numbers of wounded and dead.
The seemingly intractable tensions have their origins in the Soviet collapse 30 years ago when Karabakh, a predominantly ethnic Armenian enclave inside Azerbaijan, declared independence. Azerbaijan still claims the territory, and Armenia backs the enclave.
Russia has a mutual defense agreement with Armenia that could take effect if the fighting were to spread to Armenia proper, and Armenia has reported some shelling on its territory.
Turkey, a NATO member, is allied with Azerbaijan. On Monday, a national security adviser to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey released a statement condemning Armenia. “We believe this conflict can be resolved through peaceful negotiations, but the Armenian side has shown no interest so far,” the statement said.
Urging Armenia to “stop violating international law,” the statement added: “We will continue to stand by the people of Azerbaijan and the government of Azerbaijan against any kind of aggression by Armenia or any other country.”
Russia and Turkey are already backing opposite sides in civil wars in Libya and Syria. At the same time, the countries kept up trade ties, cut natural gas deals and Turkey bought anti-aircraft missiles from Russia, angering the United States.
A Turkish news agency reported during the latest fighting that Turkish-made drones hit targets in Nagorno-Karabakh, raising the specter of a proxy battle in the enclave.
“Trespassing into former Soviet territory with arms is not something Russia will look kindly at,” said Dmitry Trenin, director of the Moscow Carnegie Center. “That could cross a red line” not passed before, he said.
Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, said Monday that Russia was seeking to resolve the crisis and that “we are not talking now about military options.”
Over the years, the major powers particularly Russia, which supplies the militaries of both sides and helps lead an international peace effort called the Minsk Process have intervened to quell flare-ups.
Distracted by other issues like the pandemic, however and a popular uprising in Belarus, another former Soviet state international mediators missed warning signs in the Caucasus conflict, analysts say. Foreign leaders have called for a quick cease-fire, but both sides seem to be settling in for a long fight.
“All the signals were in place, everything was telling that escalation was coming,” said Olesya Vartanyan, a senior analyst of the Caucasus at the International Crisis Group. “And there was diplomatic silence.”
Virus travel restrictions, she noted, had prevented traditional shuttle diplomacy over the summer. “This is a perfect time” to start a war, Vartanyan said.
Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev, ordered a partial mobilization of reserves and the country’s military Monday, and, in the clearest terms yet, stated a goal of seizing territory. Armenia had earlier called up reserves.
The international airport in Baku, the Azerbaijani capital, canceled flights Monday, while authorities in Armenia announced a counteroffensive and said that fighting had intensified.
How the fighting began Sunday morning is contested. Azerbaijan says Armenia fired artillery across the border, while Armenia says itwas victim of an unprovoked attack.