Spreading of virus in Marin increases

Rise comes as cases go down statewide

The rate at which COVID-19 is spreading in Marin has jumped this week to its highest point in more than two months, representing an early warning that the county’s coronavirus outlook could soon take a turn for the worse, according to the county’s public health officer.

Dr. Matt Willis said Marin’s “R effective” rate, which measures the average number of people a carrier of the virus will infect, has risen to 1.01 thisweek, jumping above 1 for the first time since July 11. Any rate higher than 1 indicates the virus spreading, rather than receding.

“That’s a source of concern,” Willis said. “It could be traceable to Labor Day, because this is around the time where we would see more cases that might have resulted from holiday gatherings.”

Marin’s rising transmission rate follows a regional trend, according to Gov. Gavin Newsom. In a press conference on Monday, he said the rates had climbed close to 1 for the BayArea and Southern California.

Marin County’s coronavirus case rate, however, has continued a downward trend since it hit a peak in early July, with only slight deviations over the past twoweeks, according to data compiled by the Bay Area News Group. On Tuesday, the county recorded six new C OVID -19 cases and a one-week average rate of 6.9 cases per 100,000 residents. That was down from a rate of 13.15 at the beginning of the month.

Marin’s one-week average test positivity rate, at 2.9% as of themost recent update on Tuesday, was also near its lowest level in months, according to county data.

Marin's hospitals were treating eight COVID-19 patients on Tuesday. That was down from a high of 35 people hospitalized with the virus on July 7, but up slightly from seven patients on Monday, which was the lowest number in more than three months. No new deaths were recorded Tuesday.

Statewide, California on Tuesday fell below a plateau of cases and deaths that began two weeks ago.

With 3,573 new cases of COVID-19 and 33 deaths from the virus reported around the state, each seven- day average fell to its lowest point in months. The 569 fatalities over the past week, or about 81 per day, are the fewest over any seven- day period since the first week of July, while the average 3,212 new cases per day over the past week are the fewest since June 16.

Since Sept. 15, the sevenday average of cases hadn't deviated more than 2% from 3,500 per day until Monday, when that figure sank to about 3,380 per day; it fell further Tuesday, to 3,212, or decline of about 11% from two weeks ago. The day preceding those two weeks, Sept. 13, California's sevenday average had hit a new low at 3,289 cases per day after a two-week decline of 37%. The next day, the seven- day average spiked and did not begin to show any sign of decline for another two weeks.

Newsom on Monday said that despite hospitalizations and the test-positivity rates reaching all-time lows, there were “early signs” the slowdown in cases was “beginning to plateau.”

There are “some points of concern and some points of optimism,” Newsom said, and the state's current outlook is “simply a reminder of what many projected and predicted,” referring to the second wave predicted by many epidemiologists this fall and winter.

However, while California's decline in cases may have slowed down, there hasn't been any noticeable increase more than three weeks since Labor Day weekend. In the Bay Area, the number of patients hospitalized has never fallen faster, this weekend reaching its lowest point since late June.

Meanwhile, the state has begun to conduct tests at levels not seen since before an August heat wave that brought high temperatures, wildfires and ensuing poor air quality, forcing some testing sites to close or reduce their hours.

For nearly a month, from the end of August to about two weeks ago, the California Department of Public Health reported no more than 110,000 tests per day, on average. But there have been at least 150,000 tests reported each of the past two days, while the 14- day average number of tests has climbed to about 120,000 per day.

The rate of those tests to come back positive has remained about even since it hit a low of 2.8% last Sunday, averaged over seven days. Over the past week, 2.9% of tests in the state have come back positive, while the 14day rate was one-tenth of a point lower at 2.8%.

According to Johns Hopkins University, California's 2.9% positivity rate over the past week is lower than all but 11 states and the District of Columbia.

In San Francisco, the positivity rate is now about even with New York City, which had for months kept the virus at bay with a rate below 1%. On Tuesday, however, New York City reported 3.25% positive tests and a seven-day average of 1.38%, according tomedia reports, while San Francisco's average over the past seven days is at 1.25%, according to data compiled by Bay Area News Group.

San Francisco on Tuesday became the first Bay Area county to enter the orange, or “moderate,” tier of California's color-coded reopening system, paving the way for further reopening in the city. Despite being one of the few counties deemed red upon the announcement of the new systemat the end of August, city officials had declined to allow for most indoor activities at any capacity until the city entered the orange tier.

San Francisco will allow indoor dining and places of worship to operate indoor sat 25% capacity starting Wednesday, city officials announced. Movie theaters will also reopen with modifications and at limited capacity on Oct. 7, and the red tape will come down from playgrounds in mid- October.

ontra Costa County also exited the most severe purple tier on Tuesday, leaving Sonoma County as the only jurisdiction in the region still under the most restrictive state measures.

Altogether, the sevenday average of cases in the Bay Area fell to about 500 per day, while the average number of deaths in the region rose to about 12.5 per day over the past week for a total of 87, or about 1 in every 100,000 residents. There were five deaths reported in the region Monday.

Riverside County, which doesn't issue updates over the weekend, reported 17 new fatalities Monday, the most of any jurisdiction in the state. The per-capita rate there over the past week is about 1.7 deaths/100,000 residents, or about 69% higher than the Bay Area. There were six deaths reported in Sacramento County, and no other county reported more than two.

On Monday, the global death toll from COVID-19 crossed 1 million, according to Johns Hopkins University, with more than 33 million known cases worldwide. No country has reported more cases or deaths than the U.S., where more than 7.1 million Americans have been infected and 205,000 have died from the virus.

In California, the cumulative case count was at about 813,000 as of Monday — about 11% of the nationwide total — while the statewide death toll climbed to 15,639, or about 7.6% of the nationwide total. The state's 39.5 million people account for about 12% of the U.S. population.