America’s democracy under microscope this election
Those who think 2020 is the worst year they’ve experienced should understand the odds are good it will soon get worse.
I’ve written that the partisan divisions, identity politics and tribalism consuming our nation resemble emotions during the period leading to America’s first CivilWar. This Nov. 3 will be similar to Election Day 1860 when everything was on the line. The difference is today there’s no Abe Lincoln to save the union.
If that’s not bad enough, Eastern Europe, Brazil, Russia and even the United States are repeating the 1930s’march to authoritarian fascism.
As national commentator Thomas Friedman says, “If you’re not worried now, you’re not paying attention.”
The potential dissolution of the republic and related civil unrest has major Marin implications. The resulting financial chaos from a disputed election will be epochal as individual, institutional and public investments will tank. The market doesn’t care if the next president is red or blue; it just demands stability and predictability.
It was said after Sept. 11 that Americans lacked the imagination to foresee a terrorist attack on the homeland. Many now lack the imagination to understand the threat to America’s future as a democratic republic in which all have confidence in the integrity of its elections.
Berkeley‘s highly reliable IGS Poll reports “eight in 10 Californians (82%) are worried that many Americans will not respect the outcome of this year’s presidential election.” This isn’t a partisan belief. The survey reports, “when asked how likely it is that this year’s presidential election will be conducted in a way that is fair and open … among very liberal voters 56% think it’s not likely that the elections will be fair and open, as do 50% of those describing themselves as very conservative politically.”
For Republicans contending that Donald Trump will follow the Constitution no matter the electoral count, recall the rise of AdolfHitler’s Nazis, Benito Mussolini’s fascists and today’s authoritarian strongmen in Hungary, Brazil and Turkey. All came to power according to their country’s existing rules. Those dictators then subverted historic norms and hallowed institutions to facilitate fascist megalomania.
To undercut the legitimacy of voting, the bedrock of any democracy, isn’t only unpatriotic, it spells national doom. If Trump claims victory on election night based solely upon early returns, instructs Attorney General Bill Barr to halt counting legitimately mailed ballots and refusing to commit — right now — to peacefully transfer power, he’ll be following inMussolini and Hitler’s sordid footsteps.
I dread election night if online trolls propagate the myth this election was stolen by — depending on your partisan persuasion — Trump or Joe Biden. That’s when agent provocateurs, both domestic and foreign, will provoke hot heads to riot. The left needs to deal with Portlandstyle anarchists whose first instinct is to torch supermarkets. The right must contend with thugs including the all-White “proud boys” who always see guns as the answer.
Civil unrest is an invitation to President Trump to declare Martial Law. Is there any doubt that won’t end well?
What will Marinites personally do if faced with this worst case scenario? As we’re seeing in Belarus after a rigged presidential election, mass protests have limited utility in the face of a determined authoritarian regime. We need a Plan B and none is on the table.
It’s understandable to be diverted by important local issues. It’s one thing to fight over changing Drake High School’s name, SMART’s fiscal performance or passing local taxes triggered by unsustainable public employee pensions. It’s far thornier to deal with America’s very future as a unified liberal democracy.
As old friend and Chronicle columnist Carl Nolte says, “The ship is headed for the rocks and we’re worried about changing the name of the ship.”
To undercut the legitimacy of voting, the bedrock of any democracy, isn’t only unpatriotic, it spells national doom.