County on track for next viral tier

Limits could ease soon if data trend continues

Marin will be allowed to move up to the next tier in the state’s systemfor deciding which counties are ready to expand reopening — if it can maintain the same coronavirus numbers this week as it posted last week.

“We have been in the ‘red tier,’ andwe are projecting now based on the numbers we’ve had this week to be moving into orange at least for this week,” Dr. Matt Willis, the county’s public health officer, told county supervisors Tuesday.

Willis added, however, that the county’s graduation to “tier 3” won’t become final for at least another week.

“Our numbers have to correspond to that tier for at least twoweeks before we would be allowed to implement the openings that correspond with the orange tier,” Willis said.

He said the earliest that could happen would be Oct. 27.

A graduation to tier 3, which is color-coded orange, would mean that Marin restaurants would be allowed to expand their indoor service from 25% of capacity to 50%, and non-essential offices would be allowed to reopen. Other types of businesses such as movie theaters and gyms would also be permitted to increase their indoor service.

To advance to tier 3, the county must have a daily case rate of 3.9 or lower; 4.9% test positivity or lower; and a health equity metric of 5.2% or lower. On Monday, the state certified the county had an adjusted daily case rate of 3.6; 1.8% test positivity; and a health equity metric of 2.7%.

The equity metric compares a county’s COVID-19 positivity rate across lowincome neighborhoods and more affluent neighborhoods.

For several weeks, Marin’s daily case rate had been hovering just above 4. Willis said the number of cases in Marin has averaged about 100 a week over the past month, compared with the county’s peak of 500 a week in July. Marin is testing 1,000 people a day for COVID-19, more than any other county in the state.

“That has been an important factor in our success in reducing case rates,” Willis said.

Nevertheless, he said, “We are vulnerable to a second or a third wave that could be even worse than what we experienced in July. We’re seeing that now in other parts of the world and other parts of the country, where they’re experiencing some of the highest case rates ever. We want to protect ourselves against that.”

Willis also announced the results of testing for the virus among schoolage children in San Rafael between Oct. 5 and Oct. 16.

“We have been facing important decisions about when and how to reopen schools safely across the county,” Willis said. “One of the communities of greatest concerns to us because of higher prevalence of infection has been parts of San Rafael, especially the Canal area.”

A total of 965 San Rafael residents ages 19 and younger were tested, and 2.1% tested positive for COVID-19. The positivity rate was 4.9% among the 250 youths who reside in the Canal area.

“The results confirm progress,” Willis said, “and affirm the choice for classroom learning for the San Rafael school district.”

In July, infection rates among the general population in the Canal neighborhood were around 30%, Willis said. He said that is because so many residents in the Canal area have had to continue working during the pandemic and live in crowded conditions to save money.

During the public comment period that followed Willis’s presentation, Rodrigo Izquierdo asked when the county might be using new COVID-19 rapid tests.

Willis said he is distributing 10,000 of Abbott Laboratories’ Binax NOW COVID- 19 tests, which were purchased by the federal government, to local hospital emergency departments and safety net health clinics. The test uses a nasal swab specimen and produces results in 15 minutes.

“We’re using it primarily to test symptomatic people,” Willis said, “because you get a higher false negative rate if people aren’t symptomatic.”

He said the test will help health care providers to quickly differentiate between patients who have COVID-19 and influenza this winter.

Supervisor Katie Rice asked Willis what advice he had regarding celebrating Halloween this year.

Willis said, “Conventional trick- or- treating where children would go through the neighborhood house-to-house is not a safe practice this year.”

A total of965 San Rafael residents ages 19 and younger were tested, and2.1% tested positive for COVID-19.