Study finds mask mandates, dining out influence virus spread
A new national study adds strong evidence that mask mandates can slow the spread of the coronavirus, and that allowing dining at restaurants can increase cases and deaths.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released the study Friday.
“All of this is very consistent,” CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said during a White House briefing on Friday. “You have decreases in cases and deaths when you wear masks, and you have increases in cases and deaths when you have inperson restaurant dining.”
The study was released just as some states are rescinding mask mandates and restaurant limits. Earlier this week, Texas became the biggest state to lift its mask rule, joining a movement by many governors to loosen COVID-19 restrictions despite pleas from health officials.
“It’s a solid piece of work that makes the case quite strongly that in-person dining is one of the more important things that needs to be handled if you’re going to control the pandemic,” said William Hanage, a Harvard University expert on disease dynamics who was not involved in the study.
The new research builds on smaller CDC studies, including one that found that people in 10 states who became infected in July were more likely to have dined at a restaurant and another that found mask mandates in 10 states were associated with reductions in hospitalizations.
The CDC researchers looked at U.S. counties
placed under state-issued mask mandates and at counties that allowed restaurant dining — both indoors and at tables outside. The study looked at data from March through December of last year.
The scientists found that mask mandates were associated with reduced coronavirus transmission, and that improvements in new cases and deaths increased as time went on.
The reductions in growth rates varied from half a percentage point to nearly 2 percentage points. That may sound small, but the large number of people involved means the impact grows with time, experts said.
“Each day that growth rate is going down, the cumulative effect — in terms of cases and deaths — adds up to be quite substantial,” said Gery Guy Jr., a CDC scientist who was the study’s lead author.
Reopening restaurant dining was not followed by a significant increase in cases and deaths in the first 40 days after restrictions were lifted. But after that, there were increases of about 1 percentage point in the growth rate
of cases and — later — 2 to 3 percentage points in the growth rate of deaths.
The delay could be because restaurants didn’t re-open immediately and because many customers may have been hesitant to dine in right after restrictions were lifted, Guy said.
Also, there’s always a lag between when people are infected and when they become ill, and longer to when they end up in the hospital and die. In the case of dining out, a delay in deaths can also be caused by the fact that the diners themselves may not die, but they could get infected and then spread it to others who get sick and die, Hanage said.
“What happens in a restaurant doesn’t stay in a restaurant,” he said.
CDC officials stopped short of saying that onpremises dining needs to stop. But they said if restaurants do open, they should follow as many prevention measures as possible, like promoting outdoor dining, having adequate indoor ventilation, masking employees and calling on customers to wear masks whenever they aren’t eating or drinking.
The Minnesota Court of Appeals on Friday ordered a judge to reconsider adding a thirddegree murder charge against a former Minneapolis police officer charged in George Floyd’s death, handing a potential victory to prosecutors, but setting up a possible delay to a trial set to start next week.
A three-judge panel said Hennepin County District Judge Peter Cahill erred last fall when he rejected a prosecution motion to reinstate the third-degree murder charge against Derek Chauvin. The panel said Cahill should have followed the precedent set by the appeals court last month when it affirmed the thirddegree murder conviction of former officer Mohamed Noor in the 2017 shooting death of Justine Ruszczyk Damond. The unarmed Australian woman had called 911 to report a possible sexual assault.
The appeals court sent the case back to Cahill for a ruling consistent with its ruling in the Noor case, giving the judge some leeway to consider other arguments that the defense might make against reinstating the charge.
“This court’s precedential opinion in Noor became binding authority on the date it was filed. The district court therefore erred by concluding that it was not bound by the principles of law set forth in Noor and by denying the state’s motion to reinstate the charge of third-degree murder on that basis,” the appeals court wrote.
It was not immediately clear if Friday’s ruling would force a delay in jury selection for Chauvin’s case, which is due to start Monday. He’s currently charged with second-degree murder and manslaughter. Prosecutors did not immediately return a message seeking comment on whether they would seek a delay. Chauvin’s attorney had no comment.
Chauvin has the option of appealing the ruling to the Minnesota Supreme Court, which would force Cahill to delay the trial, said Ted SampsellJones, a criminal law expert at the Mitchell Hamline School of Law. But if Chauvin decides not to appeal, the professor added, “then Judge Cahill will almost certainly reinstate the third-degree charge.”
And if Chauvin decides not to appeal, SampsellJones said, Cahill could still begin jury selection Monday, then decide in the next three weeks — before opening arguments — whether to reinstate the charge.
A reinstated third-degree murder count could increase the prosecution’s odds of getting a murder conviction.
“We believe the Court of Appeals decided this matter correctly,” Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison said in a statement. “We believe the charge of 3rd-degree murder, in addition to manslaughter and felony murder, reflects the gravity of the allegations against Mr. Chauvin. Adding this charge is an important step forward in the path toward justice. We look forward to presenting all charges to the jury in Hennepin County.”
Floyd, who was Black, died May 25 after Chauvin, who is white, pressed his knee on Floyd’s neck while he was handcuffed and pleading that he couldn’t breathe. In the wake of his death, civil unrest spiraled into violence locally. Protests spread worldwide and forced a painful reckoning on racial justice in the U.S.
With tensions growing over the looming trial, authorities have already surrounded the courthouse and nearby buildings in downtown Minneapolis with tall barriers of chainlink fencing and razor wire in case protests anticipated before, during and after the trial turn violent.
Cahill ruled last October that third-degree murder under Minnesota law requires proof that someone’s conduct was “eminently dangerous to others,” plural, not just to Floyd. Cahill said there was no evidence that Chauvin endangered anyone else and threw out the charge. But the Court of Appeals rejected similar legal reasoning in Noor’s case, ruling that a thirddegree murder conviction can be sustained even if the action that caused a victim’s death was directed at just one person.
The appeals court rejected the argument by Chauvin’s attorney that the Noor ruling shouldn’t have the force of law unless and until it’s affirmed by the Minnesota Supreme Court, which will hear oral arguments in Noor’s appeal in June. Cahill used similar reasoning last month when he rejected the state’s initial motion to restore the third-degree murder count, prompting prosecutors to ask the Court of Appeals to intervene.
Three other former officers — Thomas Lane, J. Kueng and Tou Thao — are charged with aiding and abetting second-degree murder and manslaughter. They’re scheduled for trial in August. Prosecutors want to add charges of aiding and abetting third-degree murder against them, but that question will be resolved later.