Hot race expected for Novato supervisor
Incumbent Arnold won’t seek new term in 2022
Marin County Supervisor Judy Arnold announced she won’t seek a fifth term in June 2022, essentially firing the starting pistol for a race in the Novato district.
“There could be any number of candidates who want to make the move from the Novato City Council to the Board of Supervisors,” said Brian Sobel, a Petaluma-based political analyst.
Paul Cohen, chairman of the Marin Democratic Party and a political consultant who managed Arnold’s 2018 campaign for supervisor, said, “An open seat, a race without an incumbent, always attracts interest.”
Arnold announced her decision in an email on Wednesday.
“There are many occupations in this world though none quite as rewarding as serving one’s community,” she wrote. “It’s an honor that passes from one person to another, from one generation to the next. Today, I am announcing that I will not be seeking re-election in 2022 so that this honor may too be passed on to the next.”
During a phone interview on Thursday, Arnold, who will turn 81 in July, said, “I feel like I could do four more years as far as my energy goes.”
She is one year younger than House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and seven years younger than Sen. Dianne Feinstein.
Arnold, a native of Kansas, said she would like more free time to spend with her children, two of whom live in Los Angeles, and her six grand
children. Arnold’s younger sister Nancy died on New Year’s Day due to complications from COVID-19.
Cohen said that unlike many of the county’s other supervisorial districts, which are more sprawling, the 5th District that Arnold represents is very concentrated. It includes nearly all of the city of Novato and the unincorporated areas of Bel Marin Keys, Loma Verde, Black Point, Green Point and Indian Valley.
Cohen said that gives Novato City Council members who run for the seat a leg up.
Sobel said Novato Mayor Pat Eklund and Councilman Eric Lucan are both well-positioned to run.
“I was actually quite surprised by her announcement,” said Eklund, a longtime member of the City Council. “I guess with her announcement I’m going to have to give it some thought.”
Eklund finished 921 votes behind Arnold in 2006 when Arnold was first elected to the Board of Supervisors. Lucan has been on the Novato City Council since 2011 and has been mayor.
“Eric was the first name that came to my mind as the candidate who would be the prohibitive favorite,” Sobel said.
Arnold said that many of the people who have contacted her since her announcement have asked if she would consider backing Lucan. Arnold didn’t need a lot of convincing.
“If this is what he wants to do, I’ll be behind him,” Arnold said. “I would feel good leaving him in charge.”
Lucan said the spotlight at this time should be on Arnold and her many distinguished years of public service.
“But I do hope to have the privilege of serving as supervisor,” Lucan said, “given that Judy has chosen not to run for reelection.”
“I’m not ready to make that an official announcement,” he added. “I don’t have a campaign up and running at this point.”
Arnold said Lucan is better positioned to run for the 5th District seat than she was in 2006; at that time she had served only two years on the Novato City Council.
Arnold was hardly an unknown commodity, however. She served as an aide to former Marin County supervisor Gary Giacomini and worked for former state senators John Burton and Carole Migden before running for office herself.
In 2003, Arnold finished third in a race for three seats on the Novato City Council, edging out two male incumbents. After defeating Eklund — who had already served over a decade on the Novato City Council at that point — to win her seat on the Board of Supervisors, Arnold got a pass in 2010 when no one challenged her.
Four years later, however, Arnold came close to being upset by Toni Shroyer, a real estate agent. Shroyer rode a wave of discontent sparked by the initial adoption of Plan Bay Area, a regional effort to promote housing growth along transit lines that is aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
“The first time Toni ran, Marin was in total hysteria over the state saying we needed more affordable housing,” Arnold said. “People were so angry. It was startling to me.”
Nevertheless, Arnold squeaked by, winning reelection in 2014 by 215 votes, less than 2% of the vote.
Four years later, Arnold got another scare from the same opponent. The morning after the election, Arnold trailed Shroyer by 124 votes, but when all the votes were counted days later she had won by 618 votes.
Shroyer did not respond to requests for comment on Arnold’s retirement announcement.
Arnold said one of the disadvantages of making her announcement so far in advance of her term ending is that many people think she is retiring immediately.
She said, “I’m not going anywhere yet.”