Golden Gate Transit is in a tough spot

Golden Gate Transit is facing a challenge, one that is not that unique for public transit as the threat of the COVID-19 pandemic wanes.

Ridership is still lagging from pre-lockdown numbers that sent farebox revenue plummeting. For Golden Gate, bus ridership is down about 55% from pre-pandemic numbers.

The ferries have nearly recovered.

For Golden Gate, the financial challenge is compounded by the fiscal fact that toll revenue from Golden Gate Bridge crossings is lagging, by about $1 million per week. Half of those tolls go to subsidize bus and ferry tickets.

That's why the district is considering raising rates.

And even if directors vote to enact the increases advanced by district staff, the district will still be in a fiscal hole.

The district's quandary has been made even more precarious by changes in the marketplace, from workers not having to commute as often due to shifts to online work to pastpandemic layoffs.

The district is working with other Bay Area transportation agencies to explore measures, such as a baywide tax for transit, to help right their fiscal ships.

Federal and state pandemic support helped transportation agencies avoid large services cuts and layoffs, but without that support and significant drops in ridership those agencies face payrolls they cannot meet without either raising fares or cutting staff.

“Our biggest cost is our people, and if we're going to give pay raises to employees, if we're going to make additional contributions to their pensions, we need our revenues to do that,” said Golden Gate's general manager, Denis Mulligan.

It appears that is going to be difficult to achieve without cuts in expenses, especially as the proposed increases are modest and gradual.

And even with the proposed incremental increase, Golden Gate's leadership needs to take a hard look at what it will mean to ridership. Trying to build ridership while you are also raising fares or reducing routes seems to be counterintuitive.

Fares should be affordable, routes should be convenient and service should be reliable. That's the best recipe for building ridership.

Golden Gate is facing a fiscal dilemma as it is trying to rebuild service to pre-pandemic levels, restoring routes that were eliminated or reduced during the lockdown.

In the past, it has focused on raising tolls, but that revenue source is sagging as the economy adjusts to post-pandemic changes.

The district's chief financial officer calls the dilemma a “fiscal cliff.”

The federal funding that has bailed out Golden Gate and other public transit operators during the pandemic is drying up. Some are considering significant cuts.

A quarter-per-year increase, however, appears to pencilout far short of what the district needs to close its deep budget gap.

And banking on putting a

Bay Area-wide transit tax measure on the 2024 ballot and winning passage is not a sure-thing option, especially since voters are already paying numerous local and regional taxes for transportation improvements.

Golden Gate Transit provides a vital service. Its leadership needs to take a hard look at its potential for rebuilding ridership to pre-pandemic levels and how raising fares will affect