Trade war could spark food fight, California growers fear

Steel and aluminum may be the intended quarry of a trade war that President Donald Trump has said would be “good” for the U.S. economy, but the casualties of the conflict could be food, agricultural economists warn.

China, the European Union, Mexico, Canada and other trading partners have sent strong signals that they may retaliate if Trump succeeds in imposing stiff tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum.

Each of those trading partners is a major buyer of U.S. agricultural goods, which amass a surplus of about $21 billion from worldwide trade, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

“We could be in a really nasty trade spat, and we’ve seen that agriculture is usually a big target,” said Josh Rolph, manager of federal policy for the California Farm Bureau Federation. “We are greatly concerned.”

The wheat industry, which has pushed for more open international markets, blasted the proposal Friday. “It is dismaying that the voices of farmers and many other industries were ignored in favor of an industry that is already among the most protected in the country,” a joint statement from the National Assn. of Wheat Growers and U.S. Wheat Associates said.

Food frequently bears a steeper retaliatory penalty in trade wars. Agricultural products perish quickly, faster than politicians can argue. And while few people riot over the price of a smartphone, laptop or car, they’ve been known to overthrow governments over a food shortage or a spike in the price of staples.

No state has more at stake than California, Without California, the U.S. would not have exported a single tree nut, table grape, raisin, olive oil drum, garlic clove, artichoke, fig, date, kiwi or dried plum. which leads the country a dispute involving mandatory in agricultural revenue. labeling of meat by Farmers and ranchers in its country of origin. But the Golden State are twice Congress quietly changed as dependent on foreign course. trade as the country as a The last time Mexico whole. World leaders also retaliated in a large way likely know that Trump against U.S. trade policy enjoyed deep support in was in 2009-2011, over the rural, agricultural areas, U.S. reluctance to allow including much of the Mexican trucks to cross Central Valley, said Dan the border, as required in Sumner, an economist who the North American Free directs of the Agricultural Trade Agreement. The Issues Center at UC Davis. 90 retaliatory measures

Growers in California Mexico took carved an estimated earned about $21 billion $984 million out from trade, which amounted of U.S. exports to Mexico to about 44 percent of – half of that from lost agricultural their total revenue in 2016, sales, according the last year for which full to USDA economist Steven statistics were available, Zahniser. according to the California Major farm and commodity Department of Food and groups have been Agriculture. reminding Trump since

Top trading partners include his inauguration that the European Union, free trade has been very Canada, China/hong good for U.S. agriculture. Kong, Japan, Mexico, Korea, Among the biggest sellers India, United Arab are soy beans, grains, dairy Emirates, Turkey and products, meat, nuts, hay, Vietnam. wine, fruit and vegetables.

Without California, the U.S. would not have exported a single tree nut, table grape, raisin, olive oil drum, garlic clove, artichoke, fig, date, kiwi or dried plum.

The Golden State accounts for 90 percent of the U.S. exports of wine, processing tomatoes, avocados, carrots, broccoli and celery. California’s berries, peaches, nectarines, apricots, melons, oranges, lemons, tangerines, mandarins, spinach, lettuce, seasonal vegetables and rice constituted more than half the U.S. exports of those commodities.

The U.S. agricultural sector narrowly dodged an international food fight in 2015, when Canada and Mexico made plans to retaliate against U.S. wine, fruits, meat, cheese and dozens of other items over