Did Trump spur Latinos to state’s primary polls?
Democrats are hoping anger with the Trump administration will drive Latino voters to the polls across the country for this November’s midterm elections and blunt the Republican president’s agenda. So how did that work out in California’s primary election, in a state where Latinos are the largest demographic group?
While last Tuesday’s results were disappointing for some of the state’s most prominent Latino politicians, five Latino candidates for statewide office all advanced to the runoff in November – a first.
“That’s historic,” said Fernando J. Guerra, political science professor at Loyola Marymount University. “There’s never been five viable Latino candidates on the November ballot statewide, ever.”
Ed Hernandez, the runner-up in Tuesday’s primary for lieutenant governor, will face fellow Democrat Eleni Kounalakis.
Secretary of State Alex Padilla, also a Democrat, will face Mark P. Meuser, the Republican runnerup challenger. Appointed Attorney General Xavier Becerra, who fended off fellow Democrat Dave Jones, will face Republican runner-up Steven C Bailey. Democrat Ricardo Lara will compete against front-runner Steve Poizner, who claims no party affiliation, for insurance commissioner.
And while state Sen. Kevin de León limped toward the November runoff far behind Dianne Feinstein, he secured the second spot in a crowded field to bring his progressive agenda to the race for U.S. Senate.
The one major Latino candidate left behind: Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa lost his bid for the November runoff in the governor’s race to fellow Democrat Gavin Newsom and Republican John Cox.
It’s too early to say how large Latino voter turnout was for the primary – mail-in ballots were still arriving to be counted Friday. Analysts who study turnout demographics say they won’t have solid statewide data for a month or so.
Overall statewide turnout in the June primary appears unimpressive based on available returns. The Secretary of State’s office was reporting estimated turnout at 22.7 percent by the end of the week, slightly less than the 25.14 percent in 2014, the last primary election for governor.
Turnout in some big counties with large Latino populations was reported even lower. It was 18 percent in Los Angeles, home base for both Villaraigosa and de León.
Political Data Inc., which analyzes election data, won’t have a good picture of statewide voting patterns for another 40 days or so after county elections officials certify results, said the firm’s vice president Paul Mitchell.
Latino voters are seen as key to Democrats’ hopes of retaking the Republican-led House of Representatives in the November midterm election. To many Latinos, the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement sweeps and calls for a border wall evoke California’s Proposition 187.