Poll: Newsom has commanding lead over Cox in governor’s race

Gubernatorial candidates Gavin Newsom, left and John Cox rallying with supporters for the Primary Election. following the primary. Conducted online in English and Spanish from June 6 to Sunday, the poll’s margin of error is four percentage points in either direction, and larger for subcategories of voters based on registration, voting behavior, age, ethnicity, party affiliation and other demographic indicators.

The polling shows Newsom won nearly every subgroup the Democrats competed for – liberal and moderate Democrats, across age groups, education attainment levels and in each area of the state. The sole exception was Latinos – Villaraigosa received nearly double the support Newsom did in the survey.

According to the survey, the problem for Villaraigosa was that Latinos, along with other voters he was relying upon, including those in Los Angeles County, failed to turn out in the numbers he needed.

About 14 percent of Latinos voted, compared to 41 percent of whites, the poll shows. According to election returns, about 23 percent of voters in Villaraigosa’s home turf of Los Angeles cast ballots, while 39 percent did in the Bay Area, Newsom’s base of support because of his time as mayor of San Francisco. About 23 percent of voters who did not have a college degree turned out, the poll shows, while 37 percent of those with degrees cast ballots.

“I just don’t think (Villaraigosa) ever got off the ground,” Murphy said. “He just didn’t do what he had to do. He did better among Hispanics than he did anywhere else, but he didn’t do well enough…. The Villaraigosa campaign fell flat.”

Meanwhile, Cox was able to consolidate support among GOP voters, allowing him not only to beat Republican rival Travis Allen by a wide margin, but to surge past Villaraigosa to claim the second spot in the primary.