HEADS OF THE CLASS
Ranking the top 15 prospects for Thursday’s NBA Draft
You’ve heard of Deandre Ayton and Marvin Bagley III, but when the NBA Draft tips this Thursday, you’ll want to know whether the hype on Luka Doncic is real and why Mikal Bridges and Zhaire Smith might be the draft’s two biggest sleepers. We’ve got you covered with a primer of the draft’s 15 top prospects.
1. Deandre Ayton: Though the 7-footer is the draft’s safest selection, that by no means diminishes his skill set or tantalizing potential. There were few players as dominant as Ayton in college basketball this past season; The big dropped 1.16 points per play, which ranked second nationally among all players to use at least 600 plays, and is nearly automatic around the rim, maneuvering off picks and screens to finish high above the bucket (and shot-blockers). Ayton is a tweak on the traditional big man, capable of scoring in the post or when rim running, and what’s truly interesting is that he is still very much evolving. He spent much of his freshman season at Arizona learning how to defend in space, and that experience helped him grow more and more comfortable guarding along the perimeter. And while his reliance on a midrange jump shot during pick-and-roll situations is less than optimal, those reps allowed him to develop a 3-point shot that offers a glimpse of pick-and-pop potential.
2. Luka Doncic: Much of the concern surrounding Doncic, the 18-year-old Slovenian guard, is largely unwarranted. Sure, he may not have the explosive athleticism some covet in lottery selections. But the 6-6 Doncic dropped 21 points per 36 minutes while playing for Real Madrid this past season, an unreal display of efficiency against heralded international competition. According to Jacob Goldstein of Nylon Calculus, Doncic would Tribune News Service photos have posted a box plus-minus of nearly plus4 in 2018, which would rank just outside the NBA’S top 20. Combined with his passing legerdemain and an advanced skill set both in transition and spacing the half court, it’s foolhardy to fret about Doncic’s supposed ceiling.
3. Marvin Bagley III: The freshman showcased a game full of offensive flourishes during his lone season at Duke, attempting a shot on more than a quarter of the Blue Devils’ possessions while posting an offensive rating of 1.24 PPP and connecting on more than 64 percent of his two-point field goals. Much of Bagley’s offense consists of attempts of around 15 feet from the bucket, and the 6-11 big man had a myriad offensive moves and counters at his disposal, utilizing his quickness, agility and ability to contour his body to score almost at will.
4. Trae Young: While Young isn’t quite Stephen Curry 2.0, the 6-2 guard certainly has the requisite range to get his shot off, no matter how tightly he is defended. But it’s not just Young’s individual offense that sets him apart – it’s that, plus his tremendous vision. Young notched an assist on nearly 50 percent of the Sooners’ baskets in 2018, an astounding number considering he still posted an offensive efficiency rating of 1.12 PPP while facilitating the offense. Combined with his effectiveness getting to the line – drawing 7.1 fouls per 40 minutes and converting 86 percent of those freebies – Young is tailor-made for the NBA’S current style of play.