Yes, Donald Trump can win re-election: But he’s right to worry
WASHINGTON – Despite a barrage of polls that show him losing to Democratic rivals, Donald Trump’s re-election hopes are far from doomed. But he’s vulnerable on the two most important predictors: presidential approval ratings and the state of the economy.
Trump’s approval rating is 43% in two new surveys by NBC/WALL Street Journal and Fox News. Despite low employment and record stock market highs, his approval has averaged in the low 40s steadily through his presidency.
Set against recent history, that’s a dangerous place to be. On the eve of their successful re-elections, Presidents Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton all had approval ratings in positive territory, according to Gallup tracking polls. Worse yet, Trump’s inflammatory and divisive style of politics has cemented a high negative rating and left him little room to grow.
Despite all that, Trump could very well win in November 2020. He’s raising more money than any Democrat and has the backing of a Republican Party apparatus that is working to define his foes as radical and out of touch. His geographic advantage is so strong he could lose the popular vote by 5 million and still win, according to one analysis.
The most important uncertainty for Trump is the economy. Since World War II, presidents have won a second term unless they oversaw a recession on the road to Election Day – George H.W. Bush in 1992 and Jimmy Carter in 1980 were felled by a downturn.
The U.S. economy has sputtered in recent days, with some warning signs that could presage a recession, although economists surveyed by Bloomberg News say there’s only a 35 percent chance of it hitting within the next year. This month, confidence dipped among independents and Republicans, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which showed the second-lowest overall level since before 2016 election.
Some Trump allies say the president’s position is unique.
“His approval rating is the most static statistic in politics. Nothing he does changes it. It’s a straight flat line,” said Republican strategist Brad Todd. “His approval rating is driven by the fact that people view him as a brake pedal on normal politics, and they accept the things they don’t like about him.”
Surveys suggest the growing economy has been an asset to Trump. The Nbc/journal poll found 49 percent approve of U.S. adults approve of his handling of the economy – 5 points higher than his overall approval rating. An Economist/ Yougov poll found that 47 percent approve of the way he’s handling the economy – 6 points higher than his overall approval rating.
Trump performs poorly on his stewardship of other policy issues, from health care and immigration to gun control and abortion, as well as questions of honesty and steadiness.
The Fox News poll found Trump losing to all four of his top Democratic rivals – Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris – in head-to-head matchups by margins between 6 and 12 points.
Trump has shown signs of nervousness lately, angrily tweeting about the “CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE!” – a reference to the 10-year Treasury bond rate dipping below the two-year Treasury bond rate for the first time in over a decade – and seeking to reassure Americans. He accused Democrats of “trying to ‘will’ the Economy to be bad for purposes of the 2020 Election. Very Selfish!”
“There is a danger that the one thing that’s holding him up starts to dissipate, and then he’s in deep trouble,” said Democratic consultant Joe Trippi, who argued that Trump’s handling of issues like health care have ensured a high disapproval rating despite overseeing an economy that most presidents seeking re-election would envy.
Trippi said Trump is engaging in “a base strategy” aimed at pleasing his most passionate followers without trying to expand his coalition. “Will they hang with him if the economy falters? I don’t know.”