Experts await results from current increase in COVID-19 cases

LOS ANGELES – New coronavirus cases roughly doubled in California over the last month. Hospitalizations have soared 88%, filling some medical centers close to capacity.

Now, public health officials are bracing for the grimmest phase of the cycle: a spike in COVID-19 fatalities.

So far, new deaths have remained relatively flat in California even as cases have surged. In the last six weeks, the state has recorded an average of

436 weekly coronavirus deaths, down from the previous six-week average of 510 weekly deaths, according to a Los Angeles Times data analysis. But deaths are a lagging indicator, and many experts

predict an increase in the coming weeks.

California has seen far fewer coronavirus fatalities than some hot spots across the country, recording more than 6,400 deaths, compared with more than 32,000 in New York and 15,000 in New Jersey.

How much the death toll in California will rise is the subject of some debate. This new wave of infections is increasingly being driven by younger people, while outbreaks in skilled nursing facilities have slowed. For that reason, it’s possible that fewer of the recent cases will result in deaths.

“It’s hard to say because right now, it’s this cloud of information that needs to sort itself out,” said Dr. Neha Nanda, healthcare epidemiologist and medical director of infection prevention at Keck Medicine of USC.

But others on the front lines say the younger COVID-19 demographics won’t necessarily result in a decreased death toll. Adrienne Green, chief medical officer for UC San Francisco Medical Center, said she is worried about the current wave of infections among younger people leading to a subsequent wave for older people who have interacted with them.

“Perhaps there might be a lull in the death rates and then (they) catch up,” Green said. “I think it’s going to be a wave up and down.”

Answers should come soon. Experts say it can take three to four weeks after exposure to the virus for infected people to become sick enough to be hospitalized, and four to five weeks after exposure for some of the most vulnerable patients to die from the disease.

California recorded nearly twice the number of coronavirus cases in June as it did in May – 119,938 versus 61,694, according to a Times data analysis. Yet the number of deaths declined, with 2,128 people dying in May and 1,915 in June.

Gov. Gavin Newsom said Monday that while a higher percentage of coronavirus tests are confirming infections, “we’re not seeing a commensurate increase yet in mortality.”

More younger people are also testing positive for the virus, a trend that has become apparent as the economy has reopened and working-ageadults returned to jobs and resumed social gatherings.

Early in the pandemic, in March, about half of California’s new infections were identified among people ages 18 to 49, a Times data analysis found. In June, as the number of new cases began to climb sharply, that share increased to nearly 62%. So far in July, roughly 65% of new infections have been diagnosed among those 18 to

49. That’s despite the fact that just 45% of Californians fall into that age range.

“These are individuals who tend not to be as likely to get serious disease or require either hospitalization or to die from COVID-19,” said Timothy Brewer, professor of medicine and epidemiology at UCLA.