Democrats aim for a Senate majority
WASHINGTON – As Republicans inch closer to confirming Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, and Joe Biden enjoys a national lead over Donald Trump in the presidential race, there’s also an intense battle going on for control of Congress.
The 2016 election delivered Republicans the White House in addition to both chambers of Congress. Democrats turned that around partway as they rode a wave of discontent to flip the House of Representatives in 2018.
Now, liberals are looking to extend that momentum and take full control of Congress by regaining control of the Senate. Paired with a Biden win, turning the Senate blue would give Democrats free rein to pass legislation (although the Supreme Court, especially with Barrett on it, could still challenge the constitutionality of their achievements).
Conservatives nervous about a Trump loss are hoping to maintain control of the Senate as a bulwark against a carte blanche Democrat agenda.
The chamber’s current breakdown finds Republicans with 53 seats and Democrats with 47. Flipping four seats in November would give Democrats control. If Biden wins, a Vice President Kamala Harris could break ties, lowering the threshold to three new seats.
Where might those seats come from? And are Democrats at risk of losing any of their own? Recent polling offers some insight.
In Arizona, Republican incumbent Sen. Martha Mcsally faces stiff competition from
Democrat and former astronaut Mark Kelly. Only two years ago, Mcsally ran for and lost one of the state’s Senate seats – but was soon thereafter appointed to fill the other, which had been vacated by the death of Sen. John Mccain.
Ipsos polling found Kelly ahead by 10 percentage points, 51% to 41%, in late September and early October. Data Orbital found a tighter race in early October, but Kelly still ahead, at 49% to Mcsally’s 44%.
Colorado – which voted against Trump in 2016 – now looks poised to unseat Republican incumbent
Sen. Cory Gardner. Former Gov. John Hickenlooper leads Gardner 48% to 39%, Surveyusa found.
“Hickenlooper’s advantage comes predominantly from Hispanic voters, where he leads by 27 points,” the polling firm notes.
Both of Georgia’s Senate seats are up for grabs, and both are currently held by Republicans. Sen. David Perdue faces a regular election. Sen. Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed by Georgia’s governor in December to finish the term of her retiring predecessor, is now running in a special election per state law.
Georgia law mandates a runoff if no candidate hits 50%, and Public Policy Polling suggests both races are headed for just that. In the regular election, Perdue is down by one point to Democrat Jon Ossoff, 43% to 44%, with Libertarian Shane Hazel taking 4%. In the special election, the Rev. Raphael Warnock, a
Democrat, stands at 41%, while Loeffler and another Republican, Rep. Doug Collins, are at 24% and 22%, respectively.
Warnock has been endorsed by former Presidents Carter and Obama. Because Collins and Loeffler are both Republicans, Warnock would probably go into a runoff several points behind whichever of them he finds himself up against.
Iowa was at one point expected to be a safe bet for Republican incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst, but two polls now put her behind Democrat challenger Theresa Greenfield. Quinnipiac University found a 5-point Greenfield lead among likely voters, 50% to 45%, with a 2.8-point margin of error.