More contagious COVID-19 variants bring new uncertainties to California

SAN FRANCISCO – Confirmed coronavirus cases in California surged past the 3 million mark Tuesday at a moment of growing optimism that the outbreak might finally be leveling off, even as officials noted some alarming factors that could complicate projections.

Cases continued to flatten across California – including in hard-hit Los Angeles County – after two months of recordsetting surges. COVID-19 hospitalizations have also flattened and started to decline slightly, giving some desperately needed breathing room to medical facilities still overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients.

After a slow start, California is beginning to ramp up distribution of the coronavirus vaccine, which officials see as the best hope of bending the curve and bringing back the battered economy. Limited supply of the vaccine will likely mean many will still have to wait weeks if not months to get their shots, but there is growing hope the incoming Biden administration can accelerate vaccination efforts.

But despite these positive developments, officials are expressing growing concerns about new and potentially more contagious variants of the coronavirus that have been detected in California and beyond. One of the new variants is believed to be 50% more transmissible than the conventional variety of the coronavirus, which if it became widespread, would lead to more infections, hospitalizations and deaths.

It’s possible that one of the new mutant variants may become the dominant version of the coronavirus spreading in the state in the coming months – at the same time many Californians hope to see the economy reopen significantly if conditions continue to improve. Much of the state has been on a stay-at-home order for six weeks, leaving many owners of small businesses, including restaurants, hair salons and gyms on the brink of financial ruin.

The Sacramento region had its stay-at-home order lifted last week, giving counties there the option of allowing hair salons to reopen in a limited capacity and outdoor restaurant dining to resume. Continued improvement in the pandemic elsewhere will probably put new pressure on government officials to allow additional businesses to reopen, although projected available ICU capacity remains critically limited in Southern California, the San Joaquin Valley and the Bay Area.

State officials say stay-athome orders in a region will be lifted once available ICU capacity is forecast to be 15% or greater over the next four weeks.

Health experts said they’d like to see significant decreases in both cases and hospitalizations before becoming comfortable that California is heading out of the surge. Decreases in daily coronavirus cases in recent days could have been affected by the delays in reporting over the threeday Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend.

“Cautious optimism may be in order,” said

Dr. Robert Kim-farley, medical epidemiologist and infectious diseases expert at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health. “Yet even if we are flattening at this stage, this is way too high of a level to be satisfied with merely flattening the curve. We have to make substantial decreases in the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths.”