California’s COVID-19 surge is receding, but officials still call for holiday caution

LOS ANGELES — California is steadily emerging from the crushing depths of the latest coronavirus surge — prompting optimism that the state is finally heading in the right direction, as well as renewed warnings that this holiday weekend could spur an abrupt about-face if the public lets its guard down.

Officials are particularly urging residents to abstain from crowded or indoor gatherings when they ring in the Lunar New Year or celebrate Valentine’s Day or Presidents Day, saying that such activities still present too great a risk.

“We know from experience that gatherings, parties and the other activities we usually do with non-household members on holidays leads to increases in transmission, hospitalizations and deaths,” Los Angeles County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said Thursday. “Continuing to slow transmission requires limiting the number of people we interact with.

“If we do not gather, we save lives.”

Health officials have long preached about the potential pitfalls of attending events with other households — saying that, unless attendees remain cautious and attendance is limited, they can heighten the risk of spreading the coronavirus.

Gatherings around Halloween helped plant the seeds for the state’s autumnand-winter surge, officials and experts say. Additional mingling and travel over Thanksgiving kicked things into overdrive.

The worst wave of the pandemic crested in early January. At that point, the state was recording nearly 45,000 new coronavirus cases a day.

That figure has tumbled precipitously since then — sinking to an average of 11,180 daily cases as of Thursday, according to data compiled by the Los Angeles Times.

However, that’s still more than three times the average daily caseload California saw before the spike struck.

New cases are but the first link in the coronavirus chain. A portion of those who are infected — state officials have estimated about 12% — will eventually fall ill enough to require hospitalization, and a certain share of those patients will worsen to the point that they need intensive care, and a percentage of those will die.

That means that when new cases rise, so too will the number of people who are hospitalized and ultimately die. When cases fall, those other metrics will follow — usually a few weeks later.

COVID-19 hospitalizations are currently plunging statewide. On Wednesday, there were 10,338 coronavirus-positive patients hospitalized statewide, down 36% from two weeks ago.

Deaths, though still high, have also started to slide from their surge peak. An average of 415 Californians a day have died from COVID-19 over the last week, a 23% decrease from two weeks ago.