Myanmar civil war fears growing after airstrikes on ethnic army
As the death toll among Myanmar’s protesters rose dramatically over the weekend, military airstrikes against one of the country’s largest rebel groups stoked fears of another problem: full-fledged civil war.
The Karen National Union, which controls an area in the southeast along the Thai border, confirmed Monday that about 10,000 residents fled to a safe zone last weekend after the Myanmar military conducted airstrikes that killed three people. The fighter jets came out in retaliation for an attack by ethnic Karen rebels on a base of the national army, or Tatmadaw, in which 10 soldiers were killed and another eight were arrested.
The attacks came on the same day at least 114 people were killed in clashes with the military and police in the deadliest weekend since the Feb. 1 coup, sparking condemnation from governments around the world. With the death toll now standing at nearly 500 over the past two months, the prospect of a wider fight with potentially dozens of armed militias risks even more bloodshed.
“There is a distinct possibility of mass demonstrations cascading into civil war or inter-state war,” said Lee Morgenbesser, a lecturer at Australia’s Griffith University whose researches Southeast Asian politics. “Given the sometimes porous nature of Myanmar’s borders, along with the fact that the armed ethnic groups are not subject to state authority, it is likely that the crisis spills across international borders.”
On Sunday a dozen defense chiefs from North America, Europe and the Asia Pacific jointly condemned the use of lethal force against unarmed people. Then on Monday, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha of neighboring Thailand said preparations had begun for an influx of migrants.
“We don’t want there to be a mass migration into our areas but we must also keep human rights in mind,” said Prayuth, a former army chief who staged a coup in 2014. “As there are violent conflicts in their country it is only normal that there would be migrations.”