Will recent storms save California from a brutal fire season?

It’s something of a Golden State paradox: Dry winters can pave the way for dangerous fire seasons fueled by dead vegetation, but wet winters — like the one the state has seen so far — can also spell danger by spurring heaps of new growth that can later act as fuel for flames.

Experts say it’s too soon to know with certainty what the upcoming fire season has in store. The atmospheric rivers that pounded California in January have left the state snow-capped and wet, which could be a fire deterrent if soils stay damp.

But if no more rains arrive — or if other, less predictable factors such as lightning storms and heat waves develop later in the year — all that progress could go out the window.

“The dice are loaded for a weak fire season, but there are multiple things that could cause it go the other way,” said Park Williams, a bioclimatologist at UCLA.

There’s no question the recent rains offered some relief. The storms moved most of California out of the extreme drought categories in which it has been mired for more than three years, and portions of the Sierra Nevada are still buried under multiple feet of snow.

But lower-elevation areas could be at risk, Williams said. That includes the hills around Los Angeles and the foothills of the Sierra Nevada and northern coastal ranges, which are bursting with new grasses that can easily dry out.

“This year, we’ve loaded up the ground with a whole bunch of new vegetation, and so in summertime — as long as the summer is hot and dry — the probability of grass fires is probably higher this year than normal,” he said.

Capt. Robert Foxworthy, a spokesman for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, said he was so far “optimistic” about the season in higher-elevation areas, where the month ended wetter than in recent years. In 2021, dry conditions paved the way for the Dixie and Caldor fires to become the first to ever burn from one side of the Sierra to the other.

“Obviously, the more moisture we get, the better we’re going to be,” Foxworthy said. “The more snowpack we have, the better chance we have of it being a quieter fire season overall.”

But much depends on whether the rest of the wet season brings more rain, he said. Seasonal forecasts are currently inconclusive, pointing to equal chances of dryness or wetness in much of California through April.

If no more rain falls, and if temperatures rise and strong winds arrive, “then I think we’ll be in a completely different place come summertime,” he said.

What’s more, moisture is only one ingredient in how fire season develops. Many blazes are triggered by heat, lightning, winds and other factors that are harder to predict in advance.