Salmon forecast could halt fishing
Chinook salmon are going to face a tough time this year, if the forecast from state and federal fishery scientists is accurate. It may also result in very little salmon fishing this year — or none at all — in an effort to protect stocks.
The forecast estimates Sacramento River fall chinook, the predominant stock harvested in California fisheries, at 169,767 adults, one of the lowest forecasts since the current assessment method came into play in 2008.
Klamath River chinook is forecast to be 103,793 adults, the second-lowest forecast since that body of water’s assessment method started in 1997.
While low, neither is the lowest forecast on record. The Sacramento River forecast dipped to 122,200 in 2009 and the Klamath forecast was 54,200 in
2017.
The fish generally follow a three-year period from birth as eggs hatching to the time adults return from the ocean. The actual totals sometimes beat the predictions; a good example was the 2022 ocean commercial catch, which was considerably greater than the preseason forecast. Also, rainier years produce greater abundance later in the cycle, with 2010’s above-average rainfall year resulting in high stock forecasts for
California adult chinook in 2012 and 2013.
Of course, drier years result in lower fish populations three years later. California was beginning to be gripped by drought in 2020; the result is a lower forecast number for this year.
“This is a decades-long trend, and the past few years of record drought only further stressed our salmon populations,” said Charlton Bonham, director of the California Department of Fish and Wildlife.
Bonham said this year’s forecast is disappointing despite the agency’s efforts to increase hatchery population, improve release strategies and increase the availability of critical spawning and rearing habitats.
The current wetter weather in California is good news. Relatively higher returns in 2019 and 2020 may help boost the number of spawning adults returning to the Sacramento Basin in 2023, as fish hatched in 2019 and 2020 will be returning this year.
Following several years of poor returns to the Klamath River Basin, U.S. Fish and Wildlife service officials declared Klamath River fall chinook salmon to be overfished in 2018; the fish have not yet achieved a rebuilt status under the terms of the federal Salmon Fishery Management Plan.